IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jmathe/v8y2020i5p787-d357507.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Liquidity Shortfall Analysis Framework for the European Banking Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Oana-Maria Georgescu

    (Directorate Macro-prudential Policy and Financial Stability, European Central Bank, Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
    This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) or Banco de España (BdE). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the ECB, the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management or BdE. We thank the anonymous referees. We also acknowledge the financial support of the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad grant number ECO2017-89715-P (Javier Población). Any errors that remain are, however, entirely the authors’ own.)

  • Dimitrios Laliotis

    (Directorate Macro-prudential Policy and Financial Stability, European Central Bank, Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
    This work was fully concluded prior to joining the IMF while the author was with Directorate Macro-prudential Policy and Financial Stability, at the European Central Bank.
    This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) or Banco de España (BdE). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the ECB, the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management or BdE. We thank the anonymous referees. We also acknowledge the financial support of the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad grant number ECO2017-89715-P (Javier Población). Any errors that remain are, however, entirely the authors’ own.
    The affiliations of some of the authors at the time of publication have changed, namely Dimitrios Laliotis (International Monetary Fund) and Javier Población (Banco de España).)

  • Miha Leber

    (Directorate Micro-prudential Supervision II, European Central Bank, Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
    This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) or Banco de España (BdE). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the ECB, the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management or BdE. We thank the anonymous referees. We also acknowledge the financial support of the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad grant number ECO2017-89715-P (Javier Población). Any errors that remain are, however, entirely the authors’ own.)

  • Javier Población

    (Directorate Macro-prudential Policy and Financial Stability, European Central Bank, Sonnemannstrasse 20, 60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
    This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) or Banco de España (BdE). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the ECB, the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management or BdE. We thank the anonymous referees. We also acknowledge the financial support of the Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad grant number ECO2017-89715-P (Javier Población). Any errors that remain are, however, entirely the authors’ own.
    The affiliations of some of the authors at the time of publication have changed, namely Dimitrios Laliotis (International Monetary Fund) and Javier Población (Banco de España).)

Abstract

This paper presents an analytical framework for the identification of vulnerabilities arising from the liquidity and funding profile of banks. It is composed of two pillars—estimation of liquidity needs and the counterbalancing capacity of the total liquid assets—that determine a liquidity surplus or shortfall and the drivers for a range of plausible scenarios. Granular bank-level data on the structure of liabilities, maturation profile, liquid assets quality composition, and asset encumbrance are used for that purpose, also taking into account associated commonality effects. A new liquidity metric is introduced—the distance to liquidity stress indicator (DLSI)—which measures the required stress factor for banks to become illiquid. The novelty of the approach (i.e., taking into account asset encumbrance to determine counterbalancing capacity) provides empirical evidence that asset encumbrance has a significant impact on a bank’s liquidity position, leading to the non-linear behavior of liquidity shortfalls, even in the case of linear stress factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Oana-Maria Georgescu & Dimitrios Laliotis & Miha Leber & Javier Población, 2020. "A Liquidity Shortfall Analysis Framework for the European Banking Sector," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-15, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:5:p:787-:d:357507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/5/787/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/8/5/787/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2011. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.),Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 12, pages 371-410, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    3. Eric Wong & Cho-Hoi Hui, 2009. "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Interaction between Market and Credit Risks," Working Papers 0906, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    4. Jan Willem van den End, 2010. "Liquidity Stress-Tester: A Model for Stress-testing Banks' Liquidity Risk," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(1), pages 38-69, March.
    5. Céline Gauthier & Moez Souissi & Xuezhi Liu, 2014. "Introducing Funding Liquidity Risk in a Macro Stress-Testing Framework," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 105-142, December.
    6. Aerdt Houben & Stefan W. Schmitz & Michael Wedow, 2015. "Systemic liquidity and macroprudential supervision," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 30, pages 85-92.
    7. Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Reflections on Northern Rock: The Bank Run That Heralded the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 101-119, Winter.
    8. Mr. Claus Puhr & Mr. Andre O Santos & Mr. Christian Schmieder & Salih N. Neftci & Mr. Benjamin Neudorfer & Mr. Stefan W. Schmitz & Mr. Heiko Hesse, 2012. "Next Generation System-Wide Liquidity Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/003, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Heiko Hesse & Mr. Ferhan Salman & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2014. "How to Capture Macro-Financial Spillover Effects in Stress Tests?," IMF Working Papers 2014/103, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Aditya Anta Taruna & Cicilia Anggadewi Harun & Raquela Renanda Nattan, 2020. "Macroprudential Liquidity Stress Test: An Application to Indonesian Banks," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 165-187.
    4. Hana Hejlová & Zlatuše Komárková & Marek Rusnák, . "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Basel Liquidity Standards," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0.
    5. Hana Hejlová & Zlatuše Komárková & Marek Rusnák, 2020. "A Liquidity Risk Stress-Testing Framework with Basel Liquidity Standards," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(3), pages 251-273.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "European Union: Publication of Financial Sector Assessment Program Documentation—Technical Note on Stress Testing of Banks," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/068, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Benjamin M. Tabak & Solange M. Guerra & Rodrigo C. Miranda & Sergio Rubens S. de Souza, 2012. "Teste de Estresse para Risco de Liquidez: o caso do sistema bancário brasileiro," Working Papers Series 302, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Jobst, Andreas A., 2014. "Measuring systemic risk-adjusted liquidity (SRL)—A model approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 270-287.
    9. Céline Gauthier & Moez Souissi & Xuezhi Liu, 2014. "Introducing Funding Liquidity Risk in a Macro Stress-Testing Framework," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 105-142, December.
    10. Adam Gersl & Zlatuse Komarkova & Lubos Komarek, 2016. "Liquidity Stress Testing with Second-Round Effects: Application to the Czech Banking Sector," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(1), pages 32-49, February.
    11. Zlatuse Komarkova & Adam Gersl & Lubos Komarek, 2011. "Models for Stress Testing Czech Banks' Liquidity Risk," Working Papers 2011/11, Czech National Bank.
    12. Koliai, Lyes, 2016. "Extreme risk modeling: An EVT–pair-copulas approach for financial stress tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-22.
    13. van den End, Jan Willem & Tabbae, Mostafa, 2012. "When liquidity risk becomes a systemic issue: Empirical evidence of bank behaviour," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 107-120.
    14. Zlatuse Komarkova & Marek Rusnak & Hana Hejlova, 2016. "The Relationship between Liquidity Risk and Credit Risk in The CNB's Liquidity Stress Tests," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2015/2016, chapter 0, pages 127-136, Czech National Bank.
    15. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    16. Mr. Fei Han & Mindaugas Leika, 2019. "Integrating Solvency and Liquidity Stress Tests: The Use of Markov Regime-Switching Models," IMF Working Papers 2019/250, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Miss Liliana B Schumacher & Mr. Theodore M. Barnhill, 2011. "Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information," IMF Working Papers 2011/263, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Financial Stability Committee, Task Force on cross-border Spillover Effects of macroprudential measures & Kok, Christoffer & Reinhardt, Dennis, 2020. "Cross-border spillover effects of macroprudential policies: a conceptual framework," Occasional Paper Series 242, European Central Bank.
    19. Hałaj, Grzegorz, 2018. "Agent-based model of system-wide implications of funding risk," Working Paper Series 2121, European Central Bank.
    20. Guillaume Arnould & Giuseppe Avignone & Cosimo Pancaro & Dawid Żochowski, 2022. "Bank funding costs and solvency," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(10), pages 931-963, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:8:y:2020:i:5:p:787-:d:357507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.