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HAPC Model of Crowd Behavior during Crises

Author

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  • Marcello Pompa

    (Institute of Systems Analysis and Informatics “A. Ruberti” (IASI)—National Research Council of Italy, Via dei Taurini 19, 00185 Rome, Italy
    Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore di Roma, Largo Francesco Vito 1, 00168 Rome, Italy)

  • Antonio Cerasa

    (Institute for Biomedical Research and Innovation (IRIB), National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy
    S’Anna Institute, Via Siris 11, 88900 Crotone, Italy
    Pharmacotechnology Documentation and Transfer Unit, Preclinical and Translational Pharmacology, Department of Pharmacy, Health Science and Nutrition, University of Calabria, Via Pietro Bucci, 87036 Rende, Italy)

  • Simona Panunzi

    (Institute of Systems Analysis and Informatics “A. Ruberti” (IASI)—National Research Council of Italy, Via dei Taurini 19, 00185 Rome, Italy
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Andrea De Gaetano

    (Institute of Systems Analysis and Informatics “A. Ruberti” (IASI)—National Research Council of Italy, Via dei Taurini 19, 00185 Rome, Italy
    Institute for Biomedical Research and Innovation (IRIB), National Research Council of Italy (CNR), Via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy
    Department of Biomatics, Óbuda University, Bécsi út 96/B, 1034 Budapest, Hungary
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

The dynamics of pedestrian crowds during exceptional tragic events are very complex depending on a series of human behaviors resulting from combinations of basic interaction principles and self-organization. The Alert–Panic–Control (APC) model is one of the mathematical models in the literature for representing such complicated processes, mainly focusing on psychologists’ points of view (i.e., emotion contagion). This work proposes a Hybrid APC (HAPC) model including new processes, such as the effect of resonance, the victims caused by people in state of panic, new interactions between populations based on imitation and emotional contagion phenomena and the ability to simulate multiple disaster situations. Results from simulated scenarios showed that in the first 5 min 54.45% of population move towards a state of alert, 13.82% enter the control state and 31.73% pass to the state of panic, highlighting that individuals respond to a terrible incident very quickly, right away after it occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcello Pompa & Antonio Cerasa & Simona Panunzi & Andrea De Gaetano, 2023. "HAPC Model of Crowd Behavior during Crises," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:11:y:2023:i:12:p:2711-:d:1171678
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dirk Helbing & Illés Farkas & Tamás Vicsek, 2000. "Simulating dynamical features of escape panic," Nature, Nature, vol. 407(6803), pages 487-490, September.
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