Meta-Analysis of Geomorphodynamics in the Western Lower Bakırçay Plain (Aegean Region, Turkey)

The relation between human activities, climate variability, and geomorphodynamics in the Mediterranean region is widely discussed. For the western lower Bakırçay plain in the ancient Pergamon Micro-Region, geoarchaeological studies have shown changes in geomorphodynamics primarily on a site-basis. We reconstruct past geomorphodynamics in the area based on a meta-analysis of 108 14 C-ages obtained from 25 sediment sequences mainly from colluvial and alluvial deposits by analyzing cumulative probability functions of the 14 C-ages. Accounting for biases in the database, we applied different approaches and compared the empirical probability functions with simulated functions. Reconstructed geomorphodynamics in the western lower Bakırçay plain during the Holocene principally coincide with a trend of climate-driven sensitivity to erosion and population dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean, but are also related to the local settlement history. Our data analysis shows that transformations of the Pergamon Micro-Region between the Hellenistic and Roman Imperial times is contemporary to increasing geomorphodynamics that peak in Roman Imperial times. However, a cause–effect relationship between geomorphodynamics and settlement dynamics should be further evaluated. A comparison with data from other settlement centers in Anatolia shows that a coincidence between the peak in geomorphodynamics and a peak in settlement activity are not obvious and may be influenced by soil conservation measures, preferred settlement location, and inherited soil exhaustion.