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Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region

Author

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  • Julia Maria Brändle

    (Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
    Department of Environmental Systems Science, Natural and Social Science Interface, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Universitätsstrasse 22, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Gaby Langendijk

    (Earth System Science Group, Wageningen University and Research Center, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands)

  • Simon Peter

    (Department of Environmental Systems Science, Agricultural Economics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Sonneggstrasse 33, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Sibyl Hanna Brunner

    (Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland)

  • Robert Huber

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Land abandonment and the subsequent re-forestation are important drivers behind the loss of ecosystem services in mountain regions. Agent-based models can help to identify global change impacts on farmland abandonment and can test policy and management options to counteract this development. Realigning the representation of human decision making with time scales of ecological processes such as reforestation presents a major challenge in this context. Models either focus on the agent-specific behavior anchored in the current generation of farmers at the expense of representing longer scale environmental processes or they emphasize the simulation of long-term economic and forest developments where representation of human behavior is simplified in time and space. In this context, we compare the representation of individual and aggregated decision-making in the same model structure and by doing so address some implications of choosing short or long term time horizons in land-use modeling. Based on survey data, we integrate dynamic agents into a comparative static economic sector supply model in a Swiss mountain region. The results from an extensive sensitivity analysis show that this agent-based land-use change model can reproduce observed data correctly and that both model versions are sensitive to the same model parameters. In particular, in both models the specification of opportunity costs determines the extent of production activities and land-use changes by restricting the output space. Our results point out that the agent-based model can capture short and medium term developments in land abandonment better than the aggregated version without losing its sensitivity to important socio-economic drivers. For comparative static approaches, extensive sensitivity analysis with respect to opportunity costs, i.e. , the measure of benefits forgone due to alternative uses of labor is essential for the assessment of the impact of climate change on land abandonment and re-forestation in mountain regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Maria Brändle & Gaby Langendijk & Simon Peter & Sibyl Hanna Brunner & Robert Huber, 2015. "Sensitivity Analysis of a Land-Use Change Model with and without Agents to Assess Land Abandonment and Long-Term Re-Forestation in a Swiss Mountain Region," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-38, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:4:y:2015:i:2:p:475-512:d:50797
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gellrich, Mario & Baur, Priska & Robinson, Brett Harvey & Bebi, Peter, 2008. "Combining classification tree analyses with interviews to study why sub-alpine grasslands sometimes revert to forest: A case study from the Swiss Alps," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-3), pages 124-138, March.
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    2. Utomo, Dhanan Sarwo & Onggo, Bhakti Stephan & Eldridge, Stephen, 2018. "Applications of agent-based modelling and simulation in the agri-food supply chains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 794-805.
    3. Huber, Robert & Zabel, Astrid & Schleiffer, Mirjam & Vroege, Willemijn & Brändle, Julia M. & Finger, Robert, 2021. "Conservation Costs Drive Enrolment in Agglomeration Bonus Scheme," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    4. Huber, Robert & Bakker, Martha & Balmann, Alfons & Berger, Thomas & Bithell, Mike & Brown, Calum & Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne & Xiong, Hang & Le, Quang Bao & Mack, Gabriele & Meyfroidt, Patrick & Millingt, 2018. "Representation of decision-making in European agricultural agent-based models," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 143-160.
    5. Huber, Robert, 2016. "Towards a cost-benefit assessment of farm structural change in European mountain regions," 149th Seminar, October 27-28, 2016, Rennes, France 244785, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. James D. A. Millington & John Wainwright, 2016. "Comparative Approaches for Innovation in Agent-Based Modelling of Landscape Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-4, May.
    7. Oliveira, Eduardo & Leuthard, Jasmin & Tobias, Silvia, 2019. "Spatial planning instruments for cropland protection in Western European countries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Ge Shi & Nan Jiang & Lianqiu Yao, 2018. "Land Use and Cover Change during the Rapid Economic Growth Period from 1990 to 2010: A Case Study of Shanghai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Egger, Claudine & Plutzar, Christoph & Mayer, Andreas & Dullinger, Iwona & Dullinger, Stefan & Essl, Franz & Gattringer, Andreas & Bohner, Andreas & Haberl, Helmut & Gaube, Veronika, 2022. "Using the SECLAND model to project future land-use until 2050 under climate and socioeconomic change in the LTSER region Eisenwurzen (Austria)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    10. James D. A. Millington & Hang Xiong & Steve Peterson & Jeremy Woods, 2017. "Integrating Modelling Approaches for Understanding Telecoupling: Global Food Trade and Local Land Use," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-18, August.
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