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Ecological Stability over the Period: Land-Use Land-Cover Change and Prediction for 2030

Author

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  • Mária Tárníková

    (Institute of Landscape Engineering, Faculty of Horticulture and Landscape Engineering, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Hospodárska 7, 949 76 Nitra, Slovakia)

  • Zlatica Muchová

    (Institute of Landscape Engineering, Faculty of Horticulture and Landscape Engineering, Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra, Hospodárska 7, 949 76 Nitra, Slovakia)

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate land-use and land-cover change and the associated change in the ecological stability of the model area Dobrá–Opatová (district of Trenčín, Slovakia), where increasing landscape transformation has raised concerns about declining ecological resilience. Despite the importance of sustainable land management, few studies in this region have addressed long-term landscape dynamics in relation to ecological stability. This research fills that gap by evaluating historical and recent LULC changes and their ecological consequences. Four time horizons were analysed: 1850, 1949, 2009, and 2024. Although the selected time periods are irregular, they reflect key milestones in the region’s land development, such as pre-industrial land use, post-war collectivisation, and recent land consolidation. These activities significantly altered the structure of the landscape. To assess future trends, we used the MOLUSCE plug-in in QGIS to simulate ecological stability for the future. The greatest structural landscape changes occurred between 1850 and 1949. Significant transformation in agricultural areas was observed between 1949 and 2009, when collectivisation reshaped small plots into large block structures and major water management projects were implemented. The 2009–2024 period was marked by land consolidation, mainly resulting in the construction of gravel roads. These structural changes have contributed to a continuous decrease in ecological stability, calculated using the coefficient of ecological stability derived from LULC categories. To explore future trends, we simulated ecological stability for the year 2030 and the simulation confirmed a continued decline in ecological stability, highlighting the need for sustainable land-use planning in the area.

Suggested Citation

  • Mária Tárníková & Zlatica Muchová, 2025. "Ecological Stability over the Period: Land-Use Land-Cover Change and Prediction for 2030," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:7:p:1503-:d:1706277
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rizwan Muhammad & Wenyin Zhang & Zaheer Abbas & Feng Guo & Luc Gwiazdzinski, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Prediction of Future Land Use and Land Cover Changes Using QGIS MOLUSCE Plugin and Remote Sensing Big Data: A Case Study of Linyi, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Nguyen, Huy Quynh & Warr, Peter, 2020. "Land consolidation as technical change: Economic impacts in rural Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Jakub Chromčák & Daša Bačová & Pavol Pecho & Anna Seidlová, 2021. "The Possibilities of Orthophotos Application for Calculation of Ecological Stability Coefficient Purposes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-18, March.
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