Demographic Change and Commons Governance: Examining the Impacts of Rural Out-Migration on Public Open Spaces in China Through a Social–Ecological Systems Framework

Rapid urbanization in China has driven substantial rural population out-migration, raising concerns about its implications for the governance of land commons in villages. While existing studies have acknowledged the effects of migration on rural resource management, little attention has been paid to its influence on the self-governance of rural public open spaces (POSs). This study adopts the social–ecological systems (SES) framework to examine how rural out-migration shapes POS self-governance mechanisms. Based on survey data from 594 villagers across 198 villages in Taigu District, partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and a mediation model grounded in the SES framework were employed for analysis. The results indicate that rural out-migration does not exert a direct impact on POS self-governance. Instead, it negatively influences governance outcomes through full mediation by villager organizations, the left-behind population, collective investment in POSs, and self-organizing activities. Notably, the mediating roles of the left-behind population and self-organizing activities account for 67.38% of the total effect, underscoring their critical importance. Drawing on these insights, the study proposes four policy recommendations to strengthen rural POS self-governance under conditions of demographic transition. This research contributes to the literature by being the first to incorporate an external social factor—rural out-migration—within the SES framework in the context of POS governance, thereby advancing both theoretical and practical understandings of rural commons management.