Unveiling the Synergies and Conflicts Between Vegetation Dynamic and Water Resources in China’s Yellow River Basin

Understanding the relationship between regional vegetation dynamics and water resources is essential for improving integrated vegetation–water management, enhancing ecosystem services, and advancing the sustainable development of ecological–economic–social systems. As China’s second largest river basin, the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is ecologically fragile and experiences severe water scarcity. Vegetation changes further intensify conflicts between water supply and demand. To investigate the evolution and interaction mechanisms between vegetation and water resources in the YRB, this study uses the InVEST model to simulate annual water yield (Wyield) from 1982 to 2020 and applies the Dimidiate Pixel Model (DPM) to estimate fractional vegetation cover (FVC). The Theil–Sen method is applied to quantify the spatiotemporal trends of Wyield and FVC. A pixel-based second-order partial correlation analysis is performed to clarify the intrinsic relationship between FVC and Wyield at the grid scale. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) During the statistical period (1982–2020), the multi-year average annual Wyield in the YRB was 73.15 mm. Interannual Wyield showed a clear fluctuating trend, with an initial decline followed by a subsequent increase. Wyield showed marked spatial heterogeneity, with high values in the southern upper reaches and low values in the Longzhong Loess Plateau and Hetao Plain. During the same period, about 68.74% of the basin experienced increasing Wyield, while declines were concentrated in the upper reaches. (2) The average FVC across the basin was 0.51, showing a significant increasing trend during the statistical period. The long-term average FVC showed significant spatial heterogeneity, with high values in the Fenwei Plain, Shanxi Basin, and Taihang Mountains, and low values in the Loess Plateau and Hetao Plain. Spatially, 68.74% of the basin exhibited significant increases in FVC, mainly in the middle and lower reaches, while decreases were mostly in the upper reaches. (3) Areas with significant FVC–Wyield correlations covered a small portion of the basin: trade-off regions made up 10.35% (mainly in the southern upper reaches), and synergistic areas accounted for 5.26% (mostly in the Hetao Plain and central Loess Plateau), both dominated by grasslands and croplands. Mechanistic analysis revealed spatiotemporal heterogeneity in FVC–Wyield relationships across the basin, influenced by both natural drivers and anthropogenic activities. This study systematically explores the patterns and interaction mechanisms of FVC and Wyield in the YRB, offering a theoretical basis for regional water management, ecological protection, and sustainable development.