Comparable Riparian Tree Cover in Historical Grasslands and Current Croplands of the Eastern Great Plains, with Model Expansion to the Entire Great Plains, U.S.A

One question about historical grassland ecosystems in the Great Plains region of central North America is the percentage of tree cover overall and near major rivers, compared to current tree cover. Here, I assessed tree cover in reconstructions of historical grasslands in the eastern Great Plains, isolating tree cover adjacent to major rivers, and then compared historical land cover to current (year 2019) land cover. As an extension to supply information for the entire Great Plains region, I modeled historical cover. For the 28 million ha extent of the eastern Great Plains, historical land cover was 86% grasslands and 14% trees, but 57% grasslands and 43% trees within 100 m of rivers. Tree cover near rivers ranged from 5.4% to 90% for 15 large river watersheds, indicating that any amount of tree cover could occur near rivers at landscape scales. Currently, the overall extent was 3.6% herbaceous vegetation and 6.6% forested, with 82% crops and pasture and 8% development. Within 100 m of rivers, crop and pasture decreased to 44% of cover, resulting in 14% herbaceous cover and 38% forested cover. Current tree cover ranged from 6.2% to 66% near rivers in 15 watersheds, which was relatively comparable to historical tree cover (ratios of 0.6 to 1.5). Results generally were similar for combined tree and shrub cover modeled for the entire Great Plains. Variability, even at landscape scales of large watersheds, was the normal condition for tree cover in grasslands and riparian ecosystems of the Great Plains. In answer to the question about tree cover in historical grassland ecosystems in the eastern Great Plains, tree cover typically was about three-fold greater near rivers than tree cover throughout grasslands. Combined tree and shrub cover near rivers was more than two-fold greater than tree and shrub cover throughout the Great Plains. Riparian forest restoration, as a management practice to reduce streambank erosion, overall has been effective, as indicated by current tree cover (38% near rivers in the eastern Great Plains) comparable to historical tree cover (43% near rivers in the eastern Great Plains), albeit as measured at coarse landscape scales with dynamics in vegetation and river locations. As a next step, restoration of grassland vegetation and non-riparian wetlands likely will help reestablish infiltrative watersheds, augmenting riparian forest restoration.