Evaluation of Arable Land Intensive Utilization and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors from the Perspective of Public Emergencies: A Case Study of Sichuan Province in China Based on the Pressure-State-Response Model

Promoting the intensive utilization of arable land is a critical strategy for addressing the scarcity problem of arable land resources and thus ensuring food security. However, public emergencies pose significant challenges to the intensive utilization of arable land. Based on the pressure-state response (PSR) model and taking Sichuan Province, known as China’s “Heavenly Granary”, as an example, this study constructs a suitable evaluation system and analyzes the variation trend of the intensive utilization of arable land from the perspective of public emergencies. Key factors constraining the intensive utilization of arable land are further analyzed using the obstacle diagnostic model. The findings of this study are as follows: (1) Despite the shocks of public emergencies, the intensive utilization level of arable land in Sichuan Province in China shows an overall upward trend, indicating a high level of resilience and adaptability. (2) The pressure to utilize arable land intensively in Sichuan exhibits periodic fluctuations, yet the state remains generally stable. The whole system shows positive adaptive responses to external pressures and contemporary conditions during the mid-to-late stages of the research period. Nevertheless, coordination among subsystems within the PSR framework remains suboptimal, and a dynamic equilibrium across the subsystems has not yet been achieved. (3) Obstacle factors constraining the intensive arable land utilization in Sichuan exhibit notable temporal variations. Early-period constraints centered on multiple cropping indexes, grain yield per unit area, and irrigation index, reflecting limitations of traditional agricultural production modes. In the later stages, key obstacles shifted to factors including per capita cultivated land, population density, and pesticide/fertilizer input index, highlighting the impediment effects caused by evolving socio-demographic dynamics influenced by public emergencies. The findings of this study reveal critical pathways for local governments to achieve sustainable arable land management amidst global uncertainties.