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Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions

Author

Listed:
  • Jixuan Yan

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Gengxin Zhang

    (Yaojie Coal Power Group Tianzhu Coal Industry Company, Wuwei 733211, China)

  • Wenning Wang

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Zichen Guo

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Jie Li

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Xiangdong Yao

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Pengcheng Gao

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Qiang Li

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Meihua Zhang

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

  • Miao Song

    (College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China)

Abstract

The value of ecosystem services (ESV) serves as a crucial metric for assessing the cost-effectiveness of ecosystems and evaluating their economic worth. Predicting the evolution of ESV across various land uses under different scenarios is essential for maintaining ecological stability and fostering sustainable developm0ent. Utilizing land use change data combined with the PLUS predictive model and ecosystem service value equivalence techniques, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying drivers of ESV in Yuzhong County, China. The results indicate that the overall ESV distribution exhibits a “fragmented northeast, clustered southwest” pattern, dominated by high-high and low-low clustering. Among the driving factors, elevation exerts the greatest influence on ESV, followed by precipitation and population density, while slope contributes least. Under natural development scenarios, the ESV remains relatively stable compared to the base year of 2020. In contrast, the farmland protection scenario effectively preserves the ESV associated with cultivated land. However, the economic development scenario leads to a significant decline in the overall ESV, with a retraction of high-value areas and an expansion of low-value regions. These insights provide a fresh perspective for analyzing the factors influencing ESV and for conducting multi-scenario predictions, thereby aiding in the development of ecological resource conservation and landscape ecological risk prevention strategies in the study region.

Suggested Citation

  • Jixuan Yan & Gengxin Zhang & Wenning Wang & Zichen Guo & Jie Li & Xiangdong Yao & Pengcheng Gao & Qiang Li & Meihua Zhang & Miao Song, 2025. "Analysis of Factors Influencing the Ecosystem Service Value in Yuzhong County and Multi-Scenario Predictions," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:4:p:833-:d:1632501
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qinglan Li & Liu Yang & Hongzan Jiao & Qing He, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case from Guiyang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Bing Qi & Miao Yu & Yunyuan Li, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Prediction of Land-Use Changes and Ecosystem Service Values in the Lhasa River Basin Based on the FLUS-Markov Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-24, April.
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    5. Rui Shu & Zhanqi Wang & Na Guo & Ming Wei & Yebin Zou & Kun Hou, 2024. "Multi-Scenario Land Use Optimization Simulation and Ecosystem Service Value Estimation Based on Fine-Scale Land Survey Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
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    9. Jianxiang Song & Jiafu Liu & Xinyue Zhang & Xin Chen & Yingtao Shang & Fengjie Gao, 2024. "Spatio-Temporal Fluctuation Analysis of Ecosystem Service Values in Northeast China over Long Time Series: Based on Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, June.
    10. Adila Akbar & Abudukeyimu Abulizi & Reyilan Erken & Tingting Yu, 2024. "Driving Mechanisms of Spatial Differentiation in Ecosystem Service Value in Opencast Coal Mines in Arid Areas: A Case Study in the Zhundong Economic and Technological Development Zone," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-24, May.
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