Multi-Scenario Land Use Optimization Simulation and Ecosystem Service Value Estimation Based on Fine-Scale Land Survey Data

Land optimization simulation and ecosystem service value (ESV) estimation can better serve land managers in decision-making. However, land survey data are seldom used in existing studies, and land optimization constraints fail to fully consider land planning control, and the optimization at the provincial scale is not fine enough, which leads to a disconnection between academic research and land management. We coupled ESV, gray multi-objective optimization (GMOP), and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models based on authoritative data on land management to project land use and ESV change under natural development (ND), rapid economic development (RED), ecological land protection (ELP), and sustainable development (SD) scenarios in 2030. The results show that construction land expanded dramatically (by 97.96% from 2000 to 2020), which encroached on grassland and cropland. This trend will continue in the BAU scenario. Construction land, woodland, and cropland are the main types of land used for expansion, while grassland and unused land, which lack strict use control, are the main land outflow categories. From 2000 to 2030, the total amount of ESV increases steadily and slightly. The spatial distribution of ESV is significantly aggregated and the agglomeration is increasing. The policy direction and land planning are important reasons for land use changes. The land use scenarios we set up can play an important role in preventing the uncontrolled expansion of construction land, mitigating the phenomenon of ecological construction, i.e., “governance while destruction”, and promoting food security. This study provides a new approach for provincial large-scale land optimization and ESV estimation based on land survey data and provides technical support for achieving sustainable land development.