IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i1p115-d1562852.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China

Author

Listed:
  • Mingwei Ma

    (College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China)

  • Yuhuai He

    (College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China)

  • Yanwei Sun

    (College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China)

  • Huijuan Cui

    (Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

  • Hongfei Zang

    (College of Water Resources, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China)

Abstract

Exploring the future ecosystem service value ( ESV ) of the upper–middle Yellow River Basin is of great significance to enhancing its ecological security and capacity. This is in response to the strategy for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, the land use change from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed quantitatively. The land use pattern in 2035 was predicted using Cellular Automata and Markov models under business as usual (BAU), ecological protection (EPS), and high urbanization (HUS) scenarios. The future ESV was estimated and the impact of land use changes on the regional ESV was identified. The results indicate that the study area experienced a reduction (~12,139 km 2 ) in cultivation and an expansion (~10,597 km 2 ) of built-up land from 2000 to 2020. In 2035, under the BAU scenario, the area of construction land and water would expand by 24.52% and 11.51%, respectively, while the area of grassland and unused land would decrease by 18,520 km 2 and 2770 km 2 , respectively. Under the EPS scenario, the area of forests, grasslands, and water would increase by 16.57%, 10.59%, and 4%, respectively. Under three different scenarios, the regional ESV s are estimated at from CNY 2475 to 2710 billion, while grasslands contribute the largest part accounting for from 57.98% to 59.21%. These findings could help to guide land development and protection through regional ecological construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingwei Ma & Yuhuai He & Yanwei Sun & Huijuan Cui & Hongfei Zang, 2025. "Land Use Modeling and Predicted Ecosystem Service Value Under Different Development Scenarios: A Case Study of the Upper–Middle Yellow River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:1:p:115-:d:1562852
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/115/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/1/115/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qinglan Li & Liu Yang & Hongzan Jiao & Qing He, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Impacts of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case from Guiyang, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Qiaowen Lin & Hongyun Su & Peter Sammonds & Mengxin Xu & Chunxiao Yan & Zhe Zhu, 2024. "Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Services Value in Urban Agglomerations Using Land Use/Cover Change Analysis: Case Study of Wuhan in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Huiying Sun & Zhenhua Di & Piling Sun & Xueyan Wang & Zhenwei Liu & Wenjuan Zhang, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Its Attribution of the Ecosystem Service Trade-Off/Synergy in the Yellow River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-26, March.
    4. Shi An & Shaoliang Zhang & Huping Hou & Yiyan Zhang & Haonan Xu & Jie Liang, 2022. "Coupling Coordination Analysis of the Ecology and Economy in the Yellow River Basin under the Background of High-Quality Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert & Anderson, Sharolyn & Sutton, Paul, 2017. "The future value of ecosystem services: Global scenarios and national implications," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 26(PA), pages 289-301.
    7. Mingjia Yang & Jiabao Luo & Lirong Zhu & Peng Lu, 2024. "Impact of Land Use Change on the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Services in Tropical Islands: A Case Study of Hainan Island, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-18, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aibo Jin & Gachen Zhang & Ping Ma & Xiangrong Wang, 2024. "Ecosystem Services Trade-Offs in the Chaohu Lake Basin Based on Land-Use Scenario Simulations," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-29, December.
    2. Xiji Jiang & Jiaxin Sun & Tianzi Zhang & Qian Li & Yan Ma & Wen Qu & Dan Ye & Zhendong Lei, 2025. "Defining Rural Types Nearby Large Cities from the Perspective of Urban–Rural Integration: A Case Study of Xi’an Metropolitan Area, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Zhang, Yanjie & Pan, Ying & Li, Meng & Wang, Zhipeng & Wu, Junxi & Zhang, Xianzhou & Cao, Yanan, 2021. "Impacts of human appropriation of net primary production on ecosystem regulating services in Tibet," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    4. Anna M. Hansson & Eja Pedersen & Niklas P. E. Karlsson & Stefan E. B. Weisner, 2023. "Barriers and drivers for sustainable business model innovation based on a radical farmland change scenario," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 8083-8106, August.
    5. Zhiwei Deng & Bin Quan, 2022. "Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-18, July.
    6. Pengyang Zhang & Lewen Zhang & Dandan Han & Tingting Wang & He Zhu & Yongtao Chen, 2023. "Coupled and Coordinated Development of the Tourism Industry and Urbanization in Marginal and Less Developed Regions—Taking the Mountainous Border Areas of Western Yunnan as a Case Study," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Di Pirro, E. & Sallustio, L. & Capotorti, G. & Marchetti, M. & Lasserre, B., 2021. "A scenario-based approach to tackle trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and land use pressure in Central Italy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 448(C).
    8. Chen, Haojie & Costanza, Robert & Kubiszewski, Ida, 2022. "Legitimacy and limitations of valuing the oxygen production of ecosystems," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    9. Rocchi, L. & Cortina, C. & Paolotti, L. & Massei, G. & Fagioli, F.F. & Antegiovanni, P. & Boggia, A., 2019. "Provision of ecosystem services from the management of Natura 2000 sites in Umbria (Italy): Comparing the costs and benefits, using choice experiment," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 13-20.
    10. Ming Zhang & Xiaojie Liu & Dan Yan, 2023. "Land Use Conflicts Assessment in Xiamen, China under Multiple Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, February.
    11. Meizhe Liao & Zongwen Zhang & Ruirui Yan & Keyu Bai, 2024. "The Assessment of Biodiversity Changes and Sustainable Agricultural Development in The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Fei, Rilong & Lin, Ziyi & Chunga, Joseph, 2021. "How land transfer affects agricultural land use efficiency: Evidence from China’s agricultural sector," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    13. Zhongyun Ni & Yinbing Zhao & Jingjing Liu & Yongjun Li & Xiaojiang Xia & Yang Zhang, 2024. "Navigating Ecological–Economic Interactions: Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Drivers in the Lower Reaches of the Jinsha River," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-59, December.
    14. Luo, Xiangyu & Jiang, Peng & Yang, Jingyi & Jin, Jing & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Simulating PM2.5 removal in an urban ecosystem based on the social-ecological model framework," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    15. Wei Guo & Yongjia Teng & Yueguan Yan & Chuanwu Zhao & Wanqiu Zhang & Xianglin Ji, 2022. "Simulation of Land Use and Carbon Storage Evolution in Multi-Scenario: A Case Study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-19, October.
    16. Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne & Weibel, Bettina, 2020. "Global assessment of mountain ecosystem services using earth observation data," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    17. Xueting Pan & Jialing Zhao, 2025. "Coupling Coordination Analysis and Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity Between Green Space Quality and Economic Development: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-24, February.
    18. Xuebin Zhang & Litang Yao & Jun Luo & Wenjuan Liang, 2022. "Exploring Changes in Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk in Key Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative Countries," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-22, June.
    19. Wang, Quan & Wang, Haijun & Chang, Ruihan & Zeng, Haoran & Bai, Xuepiao, 2022. "Dynamic simulation patterns and spatiotemporal analysis of land-use/land-cover changes in the Wuhan metropolitan area, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    20. Na Cao & Xinlei Cui & Shufeng Wen, 2024. "Exploring Differences and Evolution of Coordination Level of the Industrial Structure, Economy and Ecological Environment Complex System in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:1:p:115-:d:1562852. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.