Spatial conflict identification and scenario coordination for construction‒agricultural‒ecological land use

Land-use conflicts have become increasingly intense in the process of urbanisation and industrialisation. Previous studies on land-use conflict pay little attention to historical land-use changes and consideration of multi-objective constraints when coordinating conflicts. In this study, we propose a framework for identifying and coordinating land-use conflicts in the construction‒agricultural‒ecological space. In this framework, a conflict intensity index of construction‒agricultural‒ecological land use was created with the local dominance of occurrence probability, which was predicted by spatial dependence logistic regression with historical land-use change. Then, multi-objective constraints based on comparative advantages were used for scenario coordination of construction–agricultural–ecological land-use conflicts. The case study showed that land-use conflicts in Changzhou City exhibited a circular pattern around urban areas, and that agricultural spaces were at risk of encroachment. Five land-use zones were divided using the grouping analysis method. Scenario coordination provided a reference for land-use conflict coordination at different stages of development. Protecting the baseline of food and ecological security as well as controlling urban sprawl can help mitigate land-use conflicts.