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Growing Season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the Nepal Himalaya and Adjacent Areas, 2000–2019: Sensitivity to Climate Change and Terrain Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Mst Umme Salma Nila

    (CEN Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Maria Bobrowski

    (CEN Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

  • Udo Schickhoff

    (CEN Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 55, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract

Precisely detecting and attributing changes in vegetation greenness is crucial for sustainable ecosystem management. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is highly responsive to changes in vegetation cover and is essential for assessing vegetation dynamics. This study integrates a digital elevation model (DEM) with climate data (temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation) and MODIS-NDVI imagery (2000–2019) to investigate NDVI fluctuations and their correlation with climate change in the central Himalaya. Trend analysis of NDVI time-series data examined vegetation response influenced by elevation, aspect, and slope. The results revealed significant spatial and temporal NDVI variations, with an overall increase of 0.01 per decade ( p < 0.05), indicating gradual vegetation improvement, though 26.3% of the area (107,138 km 2 ) showed a decreasing trend. NDVI trends increased with elevation, peaking at 2000–2500 m, and then declined up to 4000 m, where they stabilized. While trends varied across slopes, they were independent of the aspect. Spearman correlation analysis revealed elevation-dependent vegetation responses to climate. Below 1000 masl, the NDVI was negatively correlated with temperature and evapotranspiration and positively with precipitation. At higher elevations (>4000 masl), temperature and evapotranspiration positively correlated with the NDVI, suggesting warming supports growth. These findings highlight complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and topography that are crucial for targeted ecosystem management.

Suggested Citation

  • Mst Umme Salma Nila & Maria Bobrowski & Udo Schickhoff, 2025. "Growing Season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the Nepal Himalaya and Adjacent Areas, 2000–2019: Sensitivity to Climate Change and Terrain Factors," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-31, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:4:p:749-:d:1625576
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xianglin Huang & Tingbin Zhang & Guihua Yi & Dong He & Xiaobing Zhou & Jingji Li & Xiaojuan Bie & Jiaqing Miao, 2019. "Dynamic Changes of NDVI in the Growing Season of the Tibetan Plateau During the Past 17 Years and Its Response to Climate Change," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-21, September.
    2. Piyush Dahal & Nicky Shrestha & Madan Shrestha & Nir Krakauer & Jeeban Panthi & Soni Pradhanang & Ajay Jha & Tarendra Lakhankar, 2016. "Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1913-1932, February.
    3. Piyush Dahal & Nicky Shree Shrestha & Madan Lall Shrestha & Nir Y. Krakauer & Jeeban Panthi & Soni M. Pradhanang & Ajay Jha & Tarendra Lakhankar, 2016. "Drought risk assessment in central Nepal: temporal and spatial analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1913-1932, February.
    4. Shilong Piao & Jingyun Fang & Philippe Ciais & Philippe Peylin & Yao Huang & Stephen Sitch & Tao Wang, 2009. "The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7241), pages 1009-1013, April.
    5. Keshav Paudel & Peter Andersen, 2013. "Response of rangeland vegetation to snow cover dynamics in Nepal Trans Himalaya," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 149-162, March.
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