Identification and Prediction of Land Use Spatial Conflicts in Urban Agglomeration on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountains Under the Background of Urbanization

In past decades, urbanization has entered a phase of rapid development, resulting in an intensified utilization of land resources. The finite nature of these resources has led to increased pressure on land availability, giving rise to a phenomenon known as land use conflict. This conflict is particularly evident in the frequent conversion of land categories, with urban impervious surfaces increasingly encroaching upon forests, grasslands, and agricultural land. Such encroachments trigger a series of land use conflict issues, which subsequently impact the function and structure of regional ecosystems. This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) within the urban agglomeration on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain. It measures and evaluates the spatial and temporal evolution of land use conflicts in the study area from 1990 to 2020, utilizing conflict-related theories and the landscape risk evaluation model. Additionally, the paper explores the spatial and temporal dimensions of land use conflicts under three scenarios—natural development (ND), cultivation priority (CP), and ecological priority (EP)—for the years 2030 and 2050, informed by the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The results indicate that unused land constitutes the predominant land use type, accounting for over 50% of the total area. The areas of cultivated land, water bodies, and urban land are experiencing an increasing trend, while the areas of forestland, grassland, and unused land are witnessing a decreasing trend. The level of land use spatial conflicts during the study period showed a decreasing and then increasing trend, with an overall upward trend and an increase in the average value of 0.03. In terms of the proportion of spatial units, mild and general conflicts exhibited a decreasing trend, with reductions of 4.21% and 2.95%, respectively. Conversely, the proportion of medium conflicts increased significantly, rising by 7.33%, while severe conflicts experienced a slight increase of 0.23%. Under the ND, CP, and EP scenarios, the spatial and temporal dynamics of future land use conflicts varied. However, the study area was predominantly characterized by general conflicts in both 2030 and 2050. In 2030, the proportions of spatial units experiencing general conflicts in the three scenarios are projected to be 61.20%, 60.39%, and 57.51%, respectively. In comparison, these proportions are projected to be 59.24%, 62.70%, and 56.29% in 2050, respectively. The anticipated future changes in land use spatial conflicts vary across different scenarios. Notably, the ND scenario indicates a rising conflict level in the study area over the next 30 years, with an overall increase of 0.03 in the mean value. In contrast, the changes in the index under the CP and EP scenarios are relatively stable.