IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i9p1544-d1483815.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Variation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems at Multiple Development Stages in Beijing City Based on the Plus and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Models

Author

Listed:
  • Peian Wang

    (College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
    These authors contirbuted as co-first authors.)

  • Chen Liu

    (School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100083, China
    These authors contirbuted as co-first authors.)

  • Linlin Dai

    (College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

Abstract

Terrestrial ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, and their carbon sequestration capacity is vital for mitigating the impacts of climate change. Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics significantly alter this capacity. This study scrutinizes the LULC evolution within the Beijing metropolitan region from 1992 to 2022, evaluating its implications for ecosystem carbon storage. It also employs the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to simulate LULC patterns under four scenarios for 2035: an Uncontrolled Scenario (UCS), a Natural Evolution Scenario (NES), a Strict Control Scenario (SCS), and a Reforestation and Wetland Expansion Scenario (RWES). The InVEST model is concurrently used to assess and forecast ecosystem carbon storage under each scenario. Key insights from the study are as follows: (1) from 1992 to 2022, Beijing’s LULC exhibited a phased developmental trajectory, marked by an expansion of urban and forested areas at the expense of agricultural land; (2) concurrently, the region’s ecosystem carbon storage displayed a fluctuating trend, peaking initially before declining, with higher storage in the northwest and lower in the central urban zones; (3) by 2035, ecosystem carbon storage is projected to decrease by 1.41 Megatons under the UCS, decrease by 0.097 Megatons under the NES, increase by 1.70 Megatons under the SCS, and increase by 11.97 Megatons under the RWES; and (4) the study underscores the efficacy of policies curtailing construction land expansion in Beijing, advocating for sustained urban growth constraints and intensified afforestation initiatives. This research reveals significant changes in urban land use types and the mechanisms propelling these shifts, offering a scientific basis for comprehending LULC transformations in Beijing and their ramifications for ecosystem carbon storage. It further provides policymakers with substantial insights for the development of strategic environmental and urban planning initiatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Peian Wang & Chen Liu & Linlin Dai, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Prediction of Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems at Multiple Development Stages in Beijing City Based on the Plus and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and ," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-24, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:9:p:1544-:d:1483815
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/9/1544/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/9/1544/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qikai Lu & Tiance Lv & Sirui Wang & Lifei Wei, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Development Stage of CO 2 Emissions of Urban Agglomerations in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Huang, Daquan & Huang, Jing & Liu, Tao, 2019. "Delimiting urban growth boundaries using the CLUE-S model with village administrative boundaries," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 422-435.
    3. Shilong Piao & Jingyun Fang & Philippe Ciais & Philippe Peylin & Yao Huang & Stephen Sitch & Tao Wang, 2009. "The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7241), pages 1009-1013, April.
    4. Zhipeng Lai & Chengjing Chen & Jianguo Chen & Zhuo Wu & Fang Wang & Shaoying Li, 2022. "Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land-Use Change and Delineation of Urban Growth Boundaries in County Area: A Case Study of Xinxing County, Guangdong Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Rong Wu & Yongli Zhang & Meilin Dai & Qingyin Li & Changlong Sun, 2023. "The Heterogeneity of the Drivers of Urban Form in China: Perspectives from Regional Disparities and Development Stage Variations," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-20, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang Zhang & Xiaojiang Xia & Jiandong Li & Luge Xing & Chengchao Yang & Haofeng Wang & Xiaoai Dai & Jue Wang, 2024. "Simulation of Urban Growth Boundary under the Guidance of Stock Development: A Case Study of Wuhan City," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, July.
    2. Jieming Chou & Yidan Hao & Yuan Xu & Weixing Zhao & Yuanmeng Li & Haofeng Jin, 2023. "Forest Carbon Sequestration Potential in China under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-12, April.
    3. Li, Shuoshuo & Liu, Yaobin & Wei, Guoen & Bi, Mo & He, Bao-Jie, 2024. "Carbon surplus or carbon deficit under land use transformation in China?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Zhen, Wei & Qin, Quande & Miao, Lu, 2023. "The greenhouse gas rebound effect from increased energy efficiency across China's staple crops," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Liu, Xiaoxu & Liu, Xiaomin & Yang, Yaotian & Yu, Miao & Tian, Hailong, 2024. "The productivity anomalies and economic losses of different grassland ecosystems caused by flash drought," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    6. Luyi Qiu & Kunying Niu & Wei He & Yaqi Hu, 2023. "Two Contribution Paths of Carbon Neutrality: Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sinks and Anthropogenic Carbon Emission Reduction—A Case of Chongqing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Kai Yin & Dengsheng Lu & Yichen Tian & Qianjun Zhao & Chao Yuan, 2014. "Evaluation of Carbon and Oxygen Balances in Urban Ecosystems Using Land Use/Land Cover and Statistical Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    8. Changqing Sun & Yulong Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Yuhai Bao, 2022. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Cover Changes Based on CLUE-S and CA-Markov Models: A Case Study of a Typical Pastoral Area in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-21, November.
    9. Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin & Zibibula Simayi & Ayinuer Mamat & Bumairiyemu Maimaiti & Yunfei Ma, 2023. "FLUS Based Modeling of the Urban LULC in Arid and Semi-Arid Region of Northwest China: A Case Study of Urumqi City," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-14, March.
    10. Chasia, Stanley & Olang, Luke O. & Sitoki, Lewis, 2023. "Modelling of land-use/cover change trajectories in a transboundary catchment of the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi Region in East Africa using the CLUE-s model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    11. Qi Fu & Mengfan Gao & Yue Wang & Tinghui Wang & Xu Bi & Jinhua Chen, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Patterns and Drivers of the Carbon Budget in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
    12. Jin, Ming & Han, Xulong & Li, Mingyu, 2023. "Trade-offs of multiple urban ecosystem services based on land-use scenarios in the Tumen River cross-border area," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    13. Xiaoyang Liu & Weihao Shi & Sen Zhang, 2022. "Progress of Research on Urban Growth Boundary and Its Implications in Chinese Studies Based on Bibliometric Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-18, December.
    14. Wei Wang & Wenjing Zeng & Weile Chen & Hui Zeng & Jingyun Fang, 2013. "Soil Respiration and Organic Carbon Dynamics with Grassland Conversions to Woodlands in Temperate China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-10, August.
    15. Guo, Wei & Lv, Ling & Zhao, Xuesheng & Cui, Ximin & Rienow, Andreas, 2024. "Multiscale coupled development and linkage response evaluation of China's carbon neutrality and sustainable development capability–A quantitative analysis perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    16. Xiaochen Liu & Shuai Wang & Qianlai Zhuang & Xinxin Jin & Zhenxing Bian & Mingyi Zhou & Zhuo Meng & Chunlan Han & Xiaoyu Guo & Wenjuan Jin & Yufei Zhang, 2022. "A Review on Carbon Source and Sink in Arable Land Ecosystems," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
    17. Somayeh Ahani & Hashem Dadashpoor, 2021. "Urban growth containment policies for the guidance and control of peri-urbanization: a review and proposed framework," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14215-14244, October.
    18. Youngsu Park & Yujun Sun, 2018. "Sustainable Forest Management in North-East Asia: A Comparative Assessment between China and Republic of Korea," International Journal of Sciences, Office ijSciences, vol. 7(04), pages 102-114, April.
    19. Kang Liu & Chaozheng Zhang & Han Zhang & Hao Xu & Wen Xia, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Variation and Dynamic Simulation of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Loess Plateau Based on PLUS and InVEST Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-18, May.
    20. Zhang, Fan & Li, Changsheng & Wang, Zheng & Glidden, Stanley & Grogan, Danielle S. & Li, Xuxiang & Cheng, Yan & Frolking, Steve, 2015. "Modeling impacts of management on farmland soil carbon dynamics along a climate gradient in Northwest China during 1981–2000," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 1-10.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:9:p:1544-:d:1483815. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.