IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v13y2024i7p1073-d1436685.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Changes and Simulation Prediction of Ecological Security Pattern on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Based on Deep Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Longqing Liu

    (College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Shidong Zhang

    (College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Wenshu Liu

    (School of Ethnology and Sociology, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Hongjiao Qu

    (School of Ethnology and Sociology, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

  • Luo Guo

    (College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

Over the past two decades, due to the combined effects of natural and human factors, the ecological environment and resources of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) have faced serious threats, profoundly impacting its ecosystem and the lives of its residents. Therefore, the establishment of the ecological security pattern (ESP) is crucial to cope with climate change, maintain ecosystem function, and sustainable development. Based on the Pressure–State–Response (PSR) model, this study constructed an evaluation index system for the ecological security (ES) of the QTP, evaluated the ES of the QTP during 2000–2020, and predicted the ES of the QTP during 2025–2035 based on the deep learning model. Combined with the residents’ perception of ES, the ES of the QTP was evaluated comprehensively. The results showed that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the ES value of the QTP continued to rise, the number of dangerous and sensitive counties decreased, and the number of other counties increased. The overall spatial distribution features higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest and central regions. (2) From 2000 to 2020, both hot spots and cold spots on the QTP decreased, with the hot spots mainly concentrated in the southeast of the QTP, represented by Yunnan Province, and the cold spots shifting from west to east, mainly concentrated in the central QTP, represented by Qinghai Province. (3) The Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model demonstrates high prediction accuracy. Based on the prediction of LSTM, the ES value of the QTP will continue to rise from 2025 to 2035, and the number of safe counties will reach the highest level in history. The spatial distribution is still higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest and central regions. (4) By analyzing residents’ perception of 25 potential factors that may affect the ES of the QTP, the results show that residents generally believe that these factors have an important impact on ES, and their evaluation is between “important” and “very important”. In addition, there is a significant correlation between these factors and the predicted values of ES. The results of the study will help to improve our understanding of the overall ecological environment of the QTP, provide accurate positioning and reasonable help for the government to formulate relevant protection strategies, and lay a methodological and practical foundation for the sustainable development of the QTP.

Suggested Citation

  • Longqing Liu & Shidong Zhang & Wenshu Liu & Hongjiao Qu & Luo Guo, 2024. "Spatiotemporal Changes and Simulation Prediction of Ecological Security Pattern on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau Based on Deep Learning," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-20, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:7:p:1073-:d:1436685
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/7/1073/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/7/1073/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zixuan Li & Jiang Chang & Cheng Li & Sihao Gu, 2023. "Ecological Restoration and Protection of National Land Space in Coal Resource-Based Cities from the Perspective of Ecological Security Pattern: A Case Study in Huaibei City, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-27, February.
    2. Devis Tuia & Benjamin Kellenberger & Sara Beery & Blair R. Costelloe & Silvia Zuffi & Benjamin Risse & Alexander Mathis & Mackenzie W. Mathis & Frank Langevelde & Tilo Burghardt & Roland Kays & Holger, 2022. "Perspectives in machine learning for wildlife conservation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Yiming Sang & Liangjie Xin, 2023. "Factors Determining Concurrent Reclamation and Abandonment of Cultivated Land on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    4. Lirong Yin & Lei Wang & Tingqiao Li & Siyu Lu & Jiawei Tian & Zhengtong Yin & Xiaolu Li & Wenfeng Zheng, 2023. "U-Net-LSTM: Time Series-Enhanced Lake Boundary Prediction Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Xuebin Zhang & Ziyang Wang & Yue Liu & Jing Shi & Hucheng Du, 2023. "Ecological Security Assessment and Territory Spatial Restoration and Management of Inland River Basin—Based on the Perspective of Production–Living–Ecological Space," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Lindan Zhang & Wenfu Peng & Ji Zhang, 2023. "Assessment of Land Ecological Security from 2000 to 2020 in the Chengdu Plain Region of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-28, July.
    7. Yuan Gao & Chuanrong Zhang & Qingsong He & Yaolin Liu, 2017. "Urban Ecological Security Simulation and Prediction Using an Improved Cellular Automata (CA) Approach—A Case Study for the City of Wuhan in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Longsheng Huang & Yi Tang & Youtao Song & Jinghui Liu & Hua Shen & Yi Du, 2024. "Identifying and Optimizing the Ecological Security Pattern of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2030," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-28, July.
    2. Yaping Zhang & Jianjun Zhang & Yufei Li & Sen Liang & Wei Chen & Yixin Dai, 2024. "Revealing the Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Obstacles of Ecological Security in the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou Region, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Anwar Hussain & Masoud Reihanifar & Rizwan Niaz & Olayan Albalawi & Mohsen Maghrebi & Abdelkader T. Ahmed & Ali Danandeh Mehr, 2024. "Characterizing Inter-Seasonal Meteorological Drought Using Random Effect Logistic Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-20, September.
    4. Hong Ran & Yonggang Ma & Zhonglin Xu, 2022. "Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use Ecological Security in the Kashgar Region Based on Grid GIS," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Gaoliu Huang & Shiming Feng & Chunguang Hu, 2024. "A Study of the Spatiotemporal Evolution Patterns and Coupling Coordination between Ecosystem Service Values and Habitat Quality in Diverse Scenarios: The Case of Chengdu Metropolitan Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-30, April.
    6. Yuelong Su & Yucheng Liu & Yong Zhou & Jiakang Liu, 2024. "Research on the Coupling and Coordination of Land Ecological Security and High-Quality Agricultural Development in the Han River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-28, October.
    7. Daiva Juknelienė & Viktorija Narmontienė & Jolanta Valčiukienė & Gintautas Mozgeris, 2025. "Driving Forces of Agricultural Land Abandonment: A Lithuanian Case," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    8. Rongjia Li & Qiushan Li & Ishikawa Mikiko & Kabilijiang Wumaier, 2024. "Numerical Study on the Summer High-Temperature Climate Adaptation of Traditional Dwellings in the Western Plains of Sichuan, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Elsadek, Elsayed Ahmed & Zhang, Ke & Hamoud, Yousef Alhaj & Mousa, Ahmed & Awad, Ahmed & Abdallah, Mohammed & Shaghaleh, Hiba & Hamad, Amar Ali Adam & Jamil, Muhammad Tahir & Elbeltagi, Ahmed, 2024. "Impacts of climate change on rice yields in the Nile River Delta of Egypt: A large-scale projection analysis based on CMIP6," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    10. Bagher Shirmohammadi & Arash Malekian & Saeid Varamesh & Abolfazl Jaafari & Javad Abdolahi & Saeed Shahbazikia & Mohammad Mohsenzadeh, 2024. "How can biomechanical measures incorporate climate change adaptation into disaster risk reduction and ecosystem sustainability?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(9), pages 8323-8336, July.
    11. Papafitsoros, Kostas & Adam, Lukáš & Schofield, Gail, 2023. "A social media-based framework for quantifying temporal changes to wildlife viewing intensity," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    12. Yuanli Liu & Qiang Liao & Zhouling Shao & Wenbo Gao & Jie Cao & Chunyan Chen & Guitang Liao & Peng He & Zhengyu Lin, 2025. "Spatial Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Cultivated Land Productivity in a Large City: Case Study of Chengdu, Sichuan, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-18, January.
    13. Pachouri, Vikrant & Singh, Rajesh & Gehlot, Anita & Pandey, Shweta & Vaseem Akram, Shaik & Abbas, Mohamed, 2024. "Empowering sustainability in the built environment: A technological Lens on industry 4.0 Enablers," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    14. Beiling Chen & Jianhua Zhu & Huayan Liu & Lixiong Zeng & Fuhua Li & Zhiyan Xiao & Wenfa Xiao, 2024. "Construction and Optimization of Ecological Security Patterns Based on Ecosystem Services in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, October.
    15. Kexin Wei & Zhaoxing Wang & Yuxiang He & Ziyang Wang, 2024. "Deciphering and Preserving the Landscape Genes of Handicraft Villages from the Perspective of Production–Living–Ecology Spaces (PLESs): A Case Study of YaoTou Village, Shaanxi Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-23, December.
    16. Qiaoyin Zhang & Yan Wu & Zhiqiang Zhao, 2024. "Identification of Harbin Ecological Function Degradation Areas Based on Ecological Importance Assessment and Ecological Sensitivity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-17, August.
    17. Lili Du & Yunbing Hou & Shuheng Zhong & Kai Qu, 2023. "Identification of Priority Areas for Ecological Restoration in Coal Mining Areas with a High Groundwater Table Based on Ecological Security Pattern and Ecological Vulnerability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Pingjia Luo & Tianlong Liu & Haiyang Cao & Hao Chen & Weixi Chen, 2025. "Coupling Coordination Evaluation of Ecological Security in Coal Resource-Exhausted Villages," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-25, April.
    19. Yongyong Fu & Wenjia Zhang & Feng Gao & Xu Bi & Ping Wang & Xiaojun Wang, 2024. "Ecological Security Pattern Construction in Loess Plateau Areas—A Case Study of Shanxi Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-20, May.
    20. Bingbing Hu & Shiyuan Zhou & Pingjia Luo & Hao Chen, 2024. "Assessment of Habitat Services and Gradient Zoning Optimization in Coal Mining Subsidence Areas from a Social–Ecological Coupling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-24, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:7:p:1073-:d:1436685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.