Assessing and Predicting Spatiotemporal Alterations in Land-Use Carbon Emission and Its Implications to Carbon-Neutrality Target: A Case Study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Optimizing land use and management are pivotal for mitigating land use-related carbon emissions. Current studies are less focused on the influence of development policies and spatial planning on carbon emissions from land use. This research employs the future land use simulation (FLUS) model to project land-use alterations under the business-as-usual (BAU) and low-carbon ecological security (LCES) scenarios. It assesses and predicts spatiotemporal characteristics of land-use carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region across urban agglomerations, cities, counties, and grids from 2000 to 2030. The influence of low-carbon policy is assessed by comparing the land-use carbon emissions between scenarios. The findings demonstrate that: (1) Urban agglomeration-wise, Beijing’s land-use carbon emissions and intensities peaked and declined, while Tianjin and Hebei’s continued to rise. (2) City-wise, central urban areas generally have higher carbon emissions intensities than non-central areas. (3) County-wise, in 2030, high carbon-intensity counties cluster near development axes. Still, the BAU scenario has a larger carbon emission intensity and a greater range of higher intensities. (4) Grid-wise, in 2030, the BAU scenario shows a clear substitution of heavy carbon emission zones for medium ones, and the LCES scenario shows a clear substitution of carbon sequestration zones for light carbon emission zones. Our methodology and findings can optimize spatial planning and carbon reduction policies in the BTH urban agglomeration and similar contexts.