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Identifying the Spatiotemporal Transitions and Future Development of a Grazed Mediterranean Landscape of South Greece

Author

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  • Dimitrios Chouvardas

    (Laboratory of Rangeland Ecology (P.O. 286), School of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Maria Karatassiou

    (Laboratory of Rangeland Ecology (P.O. 286), School of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Afroditi Stergiou

    (Laboratory of Rangeland Ecology (P.O. 286), School of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece)

  • Garyfallia Chrysanthopoulou

    (Laboratory of Rangeland Ecology (P.O. 286), School of Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece)

Abstract

Spatiotemporal changes over previous decades in grazed Mediterranean landscapes have taken the form of woody plant encroachment in open areas (e.g., grasslands, open shrublands, silvopastoral areas), altering its structure and diversity. Demographic and socioeconomic changes have played a significant role in landscape transformations, mainly by causing the abandonment of traditional management practices such as pastoral activities, wood harvesting, and agricultural practices in marginal lands. This study aimed to quantify and evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in a typical grazed Mediterranean landscape of Mount Zireia during 1945–2020, and to investigate the effect of these changes on the future development (2020–2040) of land use/land cover (LULC) types. Cartographic materials such as aerial orthophotos from 1945, land use maps of 1960, Corine Land Cover of 2018, and recent satellite images were processed with ArcGIS software. To estimate the future projection trends of LULC types, logistic regression analyses were considered in the framework of CLUE modeling. The results indicated that the strongest trend of spatiotemporal changes were forest expansion in open areas, and grasslands reduction, suggesting that the LULC types that were mainly affected were forest, grasslands, and silvopastoral areas. Future development prediction showed that forests will most probably continue to expand over grassland and silvopastoral areas, holding a high dynamic of expansion into abandoned areas. The reduction in grasslands and silvopastoral areas, independent of environment and biodiversity implications, represents a major threat to sustainable livestock husbandry based on natural grazing resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Chouvardas & Maria Karatassiou & Afroditi Stergiou & Garyfallia Chrysanthopoulou, 2022. "Identifying the Spatiotemporal Transitions and Future Development of a Grazed Mediterranean Landscape of South Greece," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:12:p:2141-:d:986091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stamatia Nasiakou & Michael Vrahnakis & Dimitrios Chouvardas & Georgios Mamanis & Vassiliki Kleftoyanni, 2022. "Land Use Changes for Investments in Silvoarable Agriculture Projected by the CLUE-S Spatio-Temporal Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-23, April.
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    4. Georgios Mamanis & Michael Vrahnakis & Dimitrios Chouvardas & Stamatia Nasiakou & Vassiliki Kleftoyanni, 2021. "Land Use Demands for the CLUE-S Spatiotemporal Model in an Agroforestry Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
    5. Zaheer Abbas & Guang Yang & Yuanjun Zhong & Yaolong Zhao, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Future Scenario of LULC Using the CA-ANN Approach: A Case Study of the Greater Bay Area, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-26, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios Fotakis & Ilias Karmiris & Diogenis A. Kiziridis & Christos Astaras & Thomas G. Papachristou, 2024. "Social-Ecological Spatial Analysis of Agroforestry in the European Union with a Focus on Mediterranean Countries," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-25, July.
    2. Konstantinos Chontos & Ioannis Tsiripidis, 2023. "Open Habitats under Threat in Mountainous, Mediterranean Landscapes: Land Abandonment Consequences in the Vegetation Cover of the Thessalian Part of Mt Agrafa (Central Greece)," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Maria Karatassiou & Afroditi Stergiou & Dimitrios Chouvardas & Mohamed Tarhouni & Athanasios Ragkos, 2024. "Forecasting of Grasslands Distribution on Mount Zireia Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Future Climatic Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-18, December.

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