IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v18y2025i2p66-d1580236.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Murray A. Rudd

    (Satoshi Action Education, Portland, OR 97214, USA)

  • Dennis Porter

    (Satoshi Action Education, Portland, OR 97214, USA)

Abstract

We develop a flexible supply and demand equilibrium framework that can be used to develop pricing models to forecast Bitcoin’s price trajectory based on its fixed, inelastic supply and evolving demand dynamics. This approach integrates Bitcoin’s unique monetary attributes with demand drivers such as institutional adoption and long-term holding patterns. Using the April 2024 halving as a baseline, we explore model scenarios with varying assumptions about growth in adoption and supply-side constraints, calibrated to real-world data. Our findings indicate that institutional and sovereign accumulation can significantly influence price trajectories, with increasing demand intensifying the impact of Bitcoin’s constrained liquidity. Forecasts suggest that modest withdrawals from liquid supply to strategic reserves could lead to substantial price appreciation over the medium term, while higher withdrawal levels may induce volatility due to supply scarcity. These results highlight Bitcoin’s potential as a long-term investment and underline the importance of integrating economic fundamentals into forward-looking portfolio strategies. Our framework provides flexibility for testing different market scenarios, demand curve functional forms, and parameterizations, offering a tool for investors and policymakers considering Bitcoin’s role as a strategic asset. By advancing a fundamentals-based approach, this study contributes to the broader understanding of how Bitcoin’s supply–demand dynamics influence market behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Murray A. Rudd & Dennis Porter, 2025. "A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-23, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:18:y:2025:i:2:p:66-:d:1580236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/18/2/66/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/18/2/66/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Askari, Hossein & Krichene, Noureddine, 2010. "An oil demand and supply model incorporating monetary policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2013-2021.
    2. Stefano Martinazzi & Andrea Flori, 2020. "The evolving topology of the Lightning Network: Centralization, efficiency, robustness, synchronization, and anonymity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2016. "The U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and the Demand for Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(1), pages 90-114, January.
    2. Cathrine Hagem & Halvor Briseid Storrøsten, 2019. "Supply‐ versus Demand‐Side Policies in the Presence of Carbon Leakage and the Green Paradox," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 379-406, January.
    3. Divakaruni, Anantha & Zimmerman, Peter, 2023. "The Lightning Network: Turning Bitcoin into money," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    4. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2011. "Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate peak oil?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5755-5764.
    5. Ahmadi, Maryam & Manera, Matteo & Sadeghzadeh, Mehdi, 2016. "Global oil market and the U.S. stock returns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1277-1287.
    6. Yousaf Raza, Muhammad & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "Oil for Pakistan: What are the main factors affecting the oil import?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    7. Stefano Martinazzi & Daniele Regoli & Andrea Flori, 2020. "A Tale of Two Layers: The Mutual Relationship between Bitcoin and Lightning Network," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Marianne Haug, 2011. "Clean energy and international oil," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(1), pages 92-116, Spring.
    9. Yuhang Zhou & Yiran Jiang & Junzhang Lin & Saule Aidarova & Maratbek Gabdullin & Miras Issakhov & Huifang Fan, 2024. "A Review on Surface Functionalization and Characterization of Silicon Oxide Nanoparticle: Implications for Enhanced Hydrocarbon Recovery," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-13, July.
    10. Vladimir Pavlovich Klepikov & Vladimir Vladimirovich Klepikov, 2018. "Crude Oil Logistics, Production and Refining in Northern Europe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 18-28.
    11. Sepehr Ramyar & Farhad Kianfar, 2019. "Forecasting Crude Oil Prices: A Comparison Between Artificial Neural Networks and Vector Autoregressive Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 743-761, February.
    12. Taran Fæhn & Cathrine Hagem & Lars Lindholt & Ståle Mæland & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2017. "Climate Policies in a Fossil Fuel Producing Country: Demand versus Supply Side Policies," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(1), pages 77-102, January.
    13. Wu, Man-Hwa & Ni, Yen-Sen, 2011. "The effects of oil prices on inflation, interest rates and money," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4158-4164.
    14. Nourah Al†Yousef, 2018. "Fundamentals and Oil Price Behaviour: New Evidence from Co†integration Tests with Structural Breaks and Granger Causality Tests," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, March.
    15. Halim Tatli, 2019. "Factors affecting industrial coal demand in Turkey," Energy & Environment, , vol. 30(6), pages 1027-1048, September.
    16. Behrang, M.A. & Assareh, E. & Ghalambaz, M. & Assari, M.R. & Noghrehabadi, A.R., 2011. "Forecasting future oil demand in Iran using GSA (Gravitational Search Algorithm)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5649-5654.
    17. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    18. Samuel Yeboah Asuamah & Joseph Ohene-Manu, 2015. "An Econometric Investigation of the Determinants of Fossil Fuel Consumption: A Multivariate Approach for Ghana," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(1), pages 32-43.
    19. Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2019. "Energy shocks pricing model: A non-linear US sectoral based analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    20. Rufei Zhang & Haizhen Zhang & Wang Gao & Ting Li & Shixiong Yang, 2022. "The Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Exchange Rates—From a Time-Varying Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-20, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:18:y:2025:i:2:p:66-:d:1580236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.