IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v17y2024i6p229-d1404365.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Examination of Bitcoin’s Halving Effects: Assessing Cryptocurrency Sustainability within the Landscape of Financial Technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Juraj Fabus

    (Department of Communications, Faculty of Operations and Economics of Transport and Communications, University of Zilina, 01026 Zilina, Slovakia)

  • Iveta Kremenova

    (Department of Communications, Faculty of Operations and Economics of Transport and Communications, University of Zilina, 01026 Zilina, Slovakia)

  • Natalia Stalmasekova

    (Department of Communications, Faculty of Operations and Economics of Transport and Communications, University of Zilina, 01026 Zilina, Slovakia)

  • Terezia Kvasnicova-Galovicova

    (Department of Communications, Faculty of Operations and Economics of Transport and Communications, University of Zilina, 01026 Zilina, Slovakia)

Abstract

This article explores the significance of Bitcoin halving events within the cryptocurrency ecosystem and their impact on market dynamics. While the existing literature addresses the periods before and after Bitcoin halving, as well as financial bubbles, there is an absence of forecasting regarding Bitcoin price in the time after halving. To address this gap and provide predictions of Bitcoin price development, we conducted a rigorous analysis of past halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, focusing on Bitcoin price behaviour before and after each occurrence. What interests us is not only the change in the price level of Bitcoins (top and bottom), but also when this turn occurs. Through synthesizing data and trends from previous events, this article aims to uncover patterns and insights that illuminate the impact of Bitcoin halving on market dynamics and sustainability, movement of the price level, the peaks reached, and price troughs. Our approach involved employing methods such as RSI, MACD, and regression analysis. We looked for the relationship between the price of Bitcoin (top and bottom) and the number of days after the halving. We have uncovered a mathematical model, according to which the next peak will be reached 19 months (in November 2025) and the trough 31 months after Bitcoin halving 2024 (in November 2026). Looking towards the future, this study estimates predictions and expectations for the upcoming Bitcoin halving. These discoveries significantly enhance our understanding of Bitcoin’s trajectory and its implications for the finance cryptocurrency market. By offering novel insights into cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study contributes to advancing knowledge in the field and provides valuable information for cryptocurrency markets, investors, and stakeholders.

Suggested Citation

  • Juraj Fabus & Iveta Kremenova & Natalia Stalmasekova & Terezia Kvasnicova-Galovicova, 2024. "An Empirical Examination of Bitcoin’s Halving Effects: Assessing Cryptocurrency Sustainability within the Landscape of Financial Technologies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-23, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:6:p:229-:d:1404365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/6/229/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/17/6/229/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dean Fantazzini & Nikita Kolodin, 2020. "Does the Hashrate Affect the Bitcoin Price?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-29, October.
    2. Jireh Yi-Le Chan & Seuk Wai Phoong & Seuk Yen Phoong & Wai Khuen Cheng & Yen-Lin Chen, 2023. "The Bitcoin Halving Cycle Volatility Dynamics and Safe Haven-Hedge Properties: A MSGARCH Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, January.
    3. de la Horra, Luis P. & de la Fuente, Gabriel & Perote, Javier, 2019. "The drivers of Bitcoin demand: A short and long-run analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 21-34.
    4. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Bitcoin, gold and the dollar – A GARCH volatility analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 85-92.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alaminos, David & Salas-Compás, M. Belén & Fernández-Gámez, Manuel Á., 2024. "Can Bitcoin trigger speculative pressures on the US Dollar? A novel ARIMA-EGARCH-Wavelet Neural Networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 654(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    2. Ji Ho Kwon, 2021. "On the factors of Bitcoin’s value at risk," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, December.
    3. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios & Stengos, Thanasis, 2024. "A Bayesian approach for the determinants of bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Natalya Apopo & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "On the (in)efficiency of cryptocurrencies: Have they taken daily or weekly random walks?," Working Papers 1904, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Jun 2019.
    5. Pardis Roozkhosh & Alireza Pooya, 2024. "Dynamic Analysis of Bitcoin Price Under Market News and Sentiments and Government Support Policies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(2), pages 1163-1198, August.
    6. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    7. Ma, Chaoqun & Tian, Yonggang & Hsiao, Shisong & Deng, Liurui, 2022. "Monetary policy shocks and Bitcoin prices," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Thanasis Stengos & Theodore Panagiotidis & Georgios Papapanagiotou, 2025. "On the time-varying causal relationships that drive bitcoin returns," Working Papers 2501, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    9. Nezir Köse & Hakan Yildirim & Emre Ünal & Boqiang Lin, 2024. "The Bitcoin price and Bitcoin price uncertainty: Evidence of Bitcoin price volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 673-695, April.
    10. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2021. "Bitcoin versus high-performance technology stocks in diversifying against global stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    11. Pho, Kim Hung & Ly, Sel & Lu, Richard & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2021. "Is Bitcoin a better portfolio diversifier than gold? A copula and sectoral analysis for China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Ata Assaf & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Khaled Mokni, 2022. "True or spurious long memory in the cryptocurrency markets: evidence from a multivariate test and other Whittle estimation methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1543-1570, September.
    13. Goodell, John W. & Goutte, Stephane, 2021. "Co-movement of COVID-19 and Bitcoin: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    14. Syed Zwick, Hélène & Syed, Sarfaraz Ali Shah, 2019. "Bitcoin and gold prices: A fledging long-term relationship," MPRA Paper 92512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Lahiani, Amine & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Testing for asymmetric nonlinear short- and long-run relationships between bitcoin, aggregate commodity and gold prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 224-235.
    16. Köchling, Gerrit & Schmidtke, Philipp & Posch, Peter N., 2020. "Volatility forecasting accuracy for Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    17. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Isskandarani, Layal & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2025. "Market efficiency and its determinants: Macro-level dynamics and micro-level characteristics of cryptocurrencies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    18. Obryan Poyser, 2017. "Exploring the determinants of Bitcoin's price: an application of Bayesian Structural Time Series," Papers 1706.01437, arXiv.org.
    19. Ting-Hsuan Chen & Mu-Yen Chen & Guan-Ting Du, 2021. "The Determinants of Bitcoin’s Price: Utilization of GARCH and Machine Learning Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 267-280, January.
    20. Arfaoui, Nadia & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Boubaker, Sabri & Mirza, Nawazish & Karim, Sitara, 2023. "Interdependence of clean energy and green markets with cryptocurrencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:6:p:229-:d:1404365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.