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Insight into Predicted Shocks in Tourism: Review of an Ex-Ante Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Sergej Gricar

    (Faculty of Business and Management Science, University of Novo Mesto, Na Loko 2, SI-8000 Novo Mesto, Slovenia
    Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Naselje Ika, Primorska 46, HR-51410 Opatija, Croatia)

  • Stefan Bojnec

    (Faculty of Management, University of Primorska, Izolska Vrata 2, SI-6101 Koper-Capodistria, Slovenia)

  • Tea Baldigara

    (Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality Management, University of Rijeka, Naselje Ika, Primorska 46, HR-51410 Opatija, Croatia)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide an insight into the modelling and forecasting of unknown events or shocks that can affect international tourist arrivals. Time-dependence is vital for summarising scattered findings. The usefulness of econometric forecasting has been recently confirmed by the pandemic and other events that have affected the world economy and, consequently, the tourism sector. In the study, a single Slovenian dataset is input for the analysis of tourist arrivals. Vector autoregressive modelling is used in the modelling process. The data vector from the premium research is extended up to 2022. The latter is an ex-post empirical study to show the validity of the ex-ante predictions. This paper analyses the synthesis of ex-ante predictions which fill the gap in the ex-ante forecasting literature. The study of previous events is relevant for research, policy and practice, with various implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergej Gricar & Stefan Bojnec & Tea Baldigara, 2022. "Insight into Predicted Shocks in Tourism: Review of an Ex-Ante Forecasting," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:10:p:436-:d:926699
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2021. "Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride from Climate Change? Evidence from Argentine Time Series Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Andrej Srakar & Marilena Vecco, 2017. "Ex-ante versus ex-post: comparison of the effects of the European Capital of Culture Maribor 2012 on tourism and employment," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 41(2), pages 197-214, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan D. Borrero & Jesús Mariscal & Alfonso Vargas-Sánchez, 2022. "A New Predictive Algorithm for Time Series Forecasting Based on Machine Learning Techniques: Evidence for Decision Making in Agriculture and Tourism Sectors," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Sergej Gricar, 2023. "Tourism Forecasting of “Unpredictable” Future Shocks: A Literature Review by the PRISMA Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-13, November.

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