Hospitality in Crisis: Evaluating the Downside Risks and Market Sensitivity of Hospitality REITs

This study evaluates the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality REITs using multi-factor asset pricing models and downside risk measures with the aim of assessing their diversification potential and crisis sensitivity. Unlike prior studies that examine REITs in aggregate, this study isolates Hospitality REITs to explore their unique cyclical and macroeconomic sensitivities. This study looks at the risk-adjusted performance of Hospitality Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in relation to more general REIT indexes and the S&P 500 Index. The study reveals that monthly returns of Hospitality REITs increasingly move in tandem with the stock markets during financial crises, which reduces their historical function as portfolio diversifiers. Investing in Hospitality REITs exposes one to the hospitality sector; however, these investments carry notable risks and provide little protection, particularly during economic upheavals. Furthermore, the study reveals that Hospitality REITs underperform on a risk-adjusted basis relative to benchmark indexes. The monthly returns of REITs show significant volatility during the post-COVID-19 era, which causes return-to-risk ratios to be below those of benchmark indexes. Estimates from multi-factor models indicate negative alpha values across conditional models, indicating that macroeconomic variables cause unremunerated risks. This industry shows great sensitivity to market beta and size and value determinants. Hospitality REITs’ susceptibility comes from their showing the most possibility for exceptional losses across asset classes under Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CvaR) downside risk assessments. The findings have implications for investors and portfolio managers, suggesting that Hospitality REITs may not offer consistent diversification benefits during downturns but can serve a tactical role in procyclical investment strategies.