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Statistical Modeling of Football Players’ Transfer Fees Worldwide

Author

Listed:
  • Raffaele Poli

    (Centre International d’Étude du Sport, University of Neuchatel, 2000 Neuchatel, Switzerland)

  • Roger Besson

    (Centre International d’Étude du Sport, University of Neuchatel, 2000 Neuchatel, Switzerland)

  • Loïc Ravenel

    (Centre International d’Étude du Sport, University of Neuchatel, 2000 Neuchatel, Switzerland)

Abstract

Professional football clubs invest vast amounts of money in the recruitment of players. This article presents the latest advances in statistical modeling of the factors that market actors take into consideration to determine the transfer prices of professional football players. It extends to a global scale the econometric approach previously developed by the authors to evaluate the transfer prices of players under contract with clubs from the five major European leagues. The statistical technique used to build the model is multiple linear regression (MLR), with fees paid by clubs as an independent variable. The sample comprises over 8000 transactions of players transferred for money from clubs worldwide during the period stretching from July 2014 to March 2024. This paper shows that a statistical model can explain up to 85% of the differences in the transfer fees paid for players. Despite the specific cases and other possible distortions mentioned in the discussion, the use of a statistical model to determine player transfer prices is thus highly relevant on a global scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaele Poli & Roger Besson & Loïc Ravenel, 2024. "Statistical Modeling of Football Players’ Transfer Fees Worldwide," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijfss:v:12:y:2024:i:3:p:93-:d:1481228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmichael, Fiona & Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 1999. "The Labour Market in Association Football: Who Gets Transferred and For How Much?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 125-150, April.
    2. Domenico Campa, 2022. "Exploring the Market of Soccer Player Registrations: An Empirical Analysis of the Difference Between Transfer Fees and Estimated Players’ Inherent Value," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(4), pages 379-406, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gracia Rubio-Martin & Francisco González Sánchez & Conrado Miguel Manuel-Garcia & Miguel Cabezón Manchado, 2026. "The effect of injury risk on players value: evidence from the main European Leagues," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.

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