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Forecasting Multiple Groundwater Time Series with Local and Global Deep Learning Networks

Author

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  • Stephanie R. Clark

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia)

  • Dan Pagendam

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia)

  • Louise Ryan

    (School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2170, Australia)

Abstract

Time series data from environmental monitoring stations are often analysed with machine learning methods on an individual basis, however recent advances in the machine learning field point to the advantages of incorporating multiple related time series from the same monitoring network within a ‘global’ model. This approach provides the opportunity for larger training data sets, allows information to be shared across the network, leading to greater generalisability, and can overcome issues encountered in the individual time series, such as small datasets or missing data. We present a case study involving the analysis of 165 time series from groundwater monitoring wells in the Namoi region of Australia. Analyses of the multiple time series using a variety of different aggregations are compared and contrasted (with single time series, subsets, and all of the time series together), using variations of the multilayer perceptron (MLP), self-organizing map (SOM), long short-term memory (LSTM), and a recently developed LSTM extension (DeepAR) that incorporates autoregressive terms and handles multiple time series. The benefits, in terms of prediction performance, of these various approaches are investigated, and challenges such as differing measurement frequencies and variations in temporal patterns between the time series are discussed. We conclude with some discussion regarding recommendations and opportunities associated with using networks of environmental data to help inform future resource-related decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie R. Clark & Dan Pagendam & Louise Ryan, 2022. "Forecasting Multiple Groundwater Time Series with Local and Global Deep Learning Networks," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-31, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:9:p:5091-:d:799447
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wehrens, Ron & Buydens, Lutgarde M. C., 2007. "Self- and Super-organizing Maps in R: The kohonen Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i05).
    2. Montero-Manso, Pablo & Hyndman, Rob J., 2021. "Principles and algorithms for forecasting groups of time series: Locality and globality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1632-1653.
    3. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2022. "M5 accuracy competition: Results, findings, and conclusions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1346-1364.
    4. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    5. Markus Reichstein & Gustau Camps-Valls & Bjorn Stevens & Martin Jung & Joachim Denzler & Nuno Carvalhais & Prabhat, 2019. "Deep learning and process understanding for data-driven Earth system science," Nature, Nature, vol. 566(7743), pages 195-204, February.
    6. Stephanie Clark & Rob J. Hyndman & Dan Pagendam & Louise M. Ryan, 2020. "Modern Strategies for Time Series Regression," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(S1), pages 179-204, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guobin Fu & Stephanie R. Clark & Dennis Gonzalez & Rodrigo Rojas & Sreekanth Janardhanan, 2023. "Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Groundwater Levels: A Case Study of Alluvial Aquifers in the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Stephen Afrifa & Tao Zhang & Peter Appiahene & Vijayakumar Varadarajan, 2022. "Mathematical and Machine Learning Models for Groundwater Level Changes: A Systematic Review and Bibliographic Analysis," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-31, August.

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