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A Method for Locational Risk Estimation of Vehicle–Children Accidents Considering Children’s Travel Purposes

Author

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  • Kojiro Matsuo

    (Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Toyohashi University of Technology, Toyohashi 441-8580, Japan)

  • Kosuke Miyazaki

    (Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Kagawa College, Kagawa 761-8058, Japan)

  • Nao Sugiki

    (Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Toyohashi University of Technology, Toyohashi 441-8580, Japan)

Abstract

The reduction in locational traffic accident risks through appropriate traffic safety management is important to support, maintain, and improve children’s safe and independent mobility. This study proposes and verifies a method to evaluate the risk of elementary school students-vehicle accidents (ESSVAs) at individual intersections on residential roads in Toyohashi city, Japan, considering the difference in travel purposes (i.e., school commuting purpose; SCP or non-school commuting purpose: NSCP), based on a statistical regression model and Empirical Bayes (EB) estimation. The results showed that the ESSVA risk of children’s travel in SCP is lower than that in NSCP, and not only ESSVAs in SCP but also most ESSVAs in NSCP occurred on or near the designated school routes. Therefore, it would make sense to implement traffic safety management and measures focusing on school routes. It was also found that the locational ESSVA risk structure is different depending on whether the purpose of the children’s travels is SCP or NSCP in the statistical model. Finally, it was suggested that evaluation of locational ESSVA risks based on the EB estimation is useful for efficiently extracting locations where traffic safety measures should be implemented compared to that only based on the number of accidents in the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Kojiro Matsuo & Kosuke Miyazaki & Nao Sugiki, 2022. "A Method for Locational Risk Estimation of Vehicle–Children Accidents Considering Children’s Travel Purposes," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-16, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:21:p:14123-:d:957094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lord, Dominique & Mannering, Fred, 2010. "The statistical analysis of crash-frequency data: A review and assessment of methodological alternatives," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 291-305, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroki Ohnishi & Makoto Fujiu & Yuma Morisaki & Junichi Takayama, 2023. "Fundamental Analysis of the Ages of Children and Road Structures Involved in Traffic Accidents," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-15, October.
    2. Yage Wang & Xinshi Zhang & Shenghao Yuan & Hongwei Huang & Ying Tang & Chengyong Shi, 2025. "Analysis and Optimization Prioritization of School Routes in Mountainous Cities Based on Child-Friendly Principles: A Case Study of Chongqing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-25, April.

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