IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i18p6487-d409661.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Parsimonious Description and Cross-Country Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Curves

Author

Listed:
  • Kristoffer Rypdal

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT—The Arctic University of Norway, 9019 Tromso, Norway)

  • Martin Rypdal

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT—The Arctic University of Norway, 9019 Tromso, Norway)

Abstract

In a given country, the cumulative death toll of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic follows a sigmoid curve as a function of time. In most cases, the curve is well described by the Gompertz function, which is characterized by two essential parameters, the initial growth rate and the decay rate as the first epidemic wave subsides. These parameters are determined by socioeconomic factors and the countermeasures to halt the epidemic. The Gompertz model implies that the total death toll depends exponentially, and hence very sensitively, on the ratio between these rates. The remarkably different epidemic curves for the first epidemic wave in Sweden and Norway and many other countries are classified and discussed in this framework, and their usefulness for the planning of mitigation strategies is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristoffer Rypdal & Martin Rypdal, 2020. "A Parsimonious Description and Cross-Country Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic Curves," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-23, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:18:p:6487-:d:409661
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/18/6487/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/18/6487/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Steffen Juranek & Floris Zoutman, 2020. "The Effect of Social Distancing Measures on the Demand for Intensive Care: Evidence on Covid-19 in Scandinavia," CESifo Working Paper Series 8262, CESifo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Checo Ariadne & Grigoli Francesco & Mota Jose M., 2022. "Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 159-196, January.
    2. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    3. Steffen Juranek & Jörg Paetzold & Hannes Winner & Floris Zoutman, 2021. "Labor market effects of COVID‐19 in Sweden and its neighbors: Evidence from administrative data," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 512-526, November.
    4. Rihab Baltaji & Ali Fakih & Nagham Sayour, 2023. "How did COVID‐19 lockdowns affect firms and workers? Evidence from Jordan and Morocco," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 41(6), November.
    5. Paul Labonne & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2023. "Risky news and credit market sentiment," Working Papers No 14/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    6. Yaming Zhang & Jiaqi Zhang & Yaya Hamadou Koura & Changyuan Feng & Yanyuan Su & Wenjie Song & Linghao Kong, 2023. "Multiple Concurrent Causal Relationships and Multiple Governance Pathways for Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention Policies in Pandemics: A Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis Based on 102 Countries," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "JUE insight: Learning epidemiology by doing: The empirical implications of a Spatial-SIR model with behavioral responses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Juranek, Steffen & Paetzold, Jörg & Winner, Hannes & Zoutman, Floris T., 2020. "Labor Market Effects of COVID-19 in Sweden and its Neighbors: Evidence from Novel Administrative Data," Discussion Papers 2020/8, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    9. Perera K.J.T. & Fernando P.I.N. & Ratnayake R.M.C.S. & Udawaththa U.D.I.C., 2021. "Consumer Behavior within the Covid-19 Pandemic A Systematic Review," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(12), pages 806-812, December.
    10. Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2020. "Pandemic, Shutdown and Consumer Spending: Lessons from Scandinavian Policy Responses to COVID-19," Papers 2005.04630, arXiv.org.
    11. Germain Gauthier, 2021. "On the Use of Two-Way Fixed Effects Models for Policy Evaluation During Pandemics," Papers 2106.10949, arXiv.org.
    12. Steffen Juranek & Floris T. Zoutman, 2021. "The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the demand for health care and on mortality: evidence from COVID-19 in Scandinavia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1299-1320, October.
    13. Ulrich Glogowsky & Emanuel Hansen & Simeon Schächtele, 2020. "How Effective Are Social Distancing Policies? Evidence on the Fight against Covid-19 from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 8361, CESifo.
    14. Karolina Drela & Agnieszka Malkowska & Anna Bera & Anna Tokarz-Kocik, 2021. "Instruments for Managing the EU Labour Market in the Face of the COVID-19 Crisis," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 984-998.
    15. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Malin C. Jensen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2023. "Business Cycle and Health Dynamics during the COVID-19 Pandemic. A Scandinavian Perspective," Working Papers No 15/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    16. Gutierrez, Emilio & Rubli, Adrian & Tavares, Tiago, 2022. "Information and behavioral responses during a pandemic: Evidence from delays in Covid-19 death reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    17. Ulrich Glogowsky & Emanuel Hansen & Simeon Schächtele, 2021. "How effective are social distancing policies? Evidence on the fight against COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-12, September.
    18. Callaway, Brantly & Li, Tong, 2023. "Policy evaluation during a pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    19. Gabriele Ciminelli & Sílvia Garcia‐Mandicó, 2022. "When and how do business shutdowns work? Evidence from Italy's first COVID‐19 wave," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 1823-1843, September.
    20. Nicola Raimo & Pedro-José Martínez-Córdoba & Bernardino Benito & Filippo Vitolla, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Labor Market: An Analysis of Supply and Demand in the Spanish Municipalities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-12, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:18:p:6487-:d:409661. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.