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Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

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  • Liu Liu

    (College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
    Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Zezhong Guo

    (College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
    Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Guanhua Huang

    (College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
    Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

  • Ruotong Wang

    (College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China
    Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China)

Abstract

As the second largest inland river basin situated in the middle of the Hexi Corridor, Northwest China, the Heihe River basin (HRB) has been facing a severe water shortage problem, which seriously restricts its green and sustainable development. The evaluation of climate change impact on water productivity inferred by crop yield and actual evapotranspiration is of significant importance for water-saving in agricultural regions. In this study, the multi-model projections of climate change under the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) were used to drive an agro-hydrological model to evaluate the crop water productivity in the middle irrigated oases of the HRB from 2021–2050. Compared with the water productivity simulation based on field experiments during 2012–2015, the projected water productivity in the two typical agricultural areas (Gaotai and Ganzhou) both exhibited an increasing trend in the future 30 years, which was mainly attributed to the significant decrease of the crop water consumption. The water productivity in the Gaotai area under the three RCP scenarios during 2021–2050 increased by 9.2%, 14.3%, and 11.8%, while the water productivity increased by 15.4%, 21.6%, and 19.9% in the Ganzhou area, respectively. The findings can provide useful information on the Hexi Corridor and the Belt and Road to policy-makers and stakeholders for sustainable development of the water-ecosystem-economy system.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu Liu & Zezhong Guo & Guanhua Huang & Ruotong Wang, 2019. "Water Productivity Evaluation under Multi-GCM Projections of Climate Change in Oases of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:16:y:2019:i:10:p:1706-:d:231403
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xue Li & Jian Sha & Yue Zhao & Zhong-Liang Wang, 2019. "Estimating the Responses of Hydrological and Sedimental Processes to Future Climate Change in Watersheds with Different Landscapes in the Yellow River Basin, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-16, October.

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