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Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model

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  • Qingxia Zhang

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China
    School of Sciences, Southwest Petroleum University, No.8, Xindu Avenue, Xindu District, Chengdu 610500, China)

  • Dingcheng Wang

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, No. 2006, Xiyuan Avenue, West Hi-Tech Zone, Chengdu 611731, China)

Abstract

In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number R H0 = 2:5, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of q ≥ 0:41 and q ≥ 0:6, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Qingxia Zhang & Dingcheng Wang, 2015. "Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-18, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:8:p:9750-9767:d:54340
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. M. Mniszewski & S. Y. Del Valle & P. D. Stroud & J. M. Riese & S. J. Sydoriak, 2008. "Pandemic simulation of antivirals + school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 209-221, September.
    2. Qingxia Zhang & Dingcheng Wang, 2014. "Antiviral Prophylaxis and Isolation for the Control of Pandemic Influenza," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-23, July.
    3. N. G. Becker & T. Britton, 1999. "Statistical studies of infectious disease incidence," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(2), pages 287-307, April.
    4. Niels G Becker & Dingcheng Wang, 2011. "Can Antiviral Drugs Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(3), pages 1-9, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Susło & Piotr Pobrotyn & Lidia Brydak & Łukasz Rypicz & Urszula Grata-Borkowska & Jarosław Drobnik, 2021. "Seasonal Influenza and Low Flu Vaccination Coverage as Important Factors Modifying the Costs and Availability of Hospital Services in Poland: A Retrospective Comparative Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-15, May.
    2. Xiaojun Zhang & Fanfan Wang & Changwen Zhu & Zhiqiang Wang, 2019. "Willingness to Self-Isolate When Facing a Pandemic Risk: Model, Empirical Test, and Policy Recommendations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, December.

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