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Identifying Meteorological Drivers for the Seasonal Variations of Influenza Infections in a Subtropical City — Hong Kong

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  • Ka Chun Chong

    (Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
    Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Lab, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • William Goggins

    (Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)

  • Benny Chung Ying Zee

    (Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
    Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Lab, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China)

  • Maggie Haitian Wang

    (Division of Biostatistics, The Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
    Clinical Trials and Biostatistics Lab, Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Compared with temperate areas, the understanding of seasonal variations of influenza infections is lacking in subtropical and tropical regions. Insufficient information about viral activity increases the difficulty of forecasting the disease burden and thus hampers official preparation efforts. Here we identified potential meteorological factors that drove the seasonal variations in influenza infections in a subtropical city, Hong Kong. We fitted the meteorological data and influenza mortality data from 2002 to 2009 in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model. From the results, air temperature was a common significant driver of seasonal patterns and cold temperature was associated with an increase in transmission intensity for most of the influenza epidemics. Except 2004, the fitted models with significant meteorological factors could account for more than 10% of the variance in additional to the null model. Rainfall was also found to be a significant driver of seasonal influenza, although results were less robust. The identified meteorological indicators could alert officials to take appropriate control measures for influenza epidemics, such as enhancing vaccination activities before cold seasons. Further studies are required to fully justify the associations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ka Chun Chong & William Goggins & Benny Chung Ying Zee & Maggie Haitian Wang, 2015. "Identifying Meteorological Drivers for the Seasonal Variations of Influenza Infections in a Subtropical City — Hong Kong," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:12:y:2015:i:2:p:1560-1576:d:45211
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Radina P Soebiyanto & Farida Adimi & Richard K Kiang, 2010. "Modeling and Predicting Seasonal Influenza Transmission in Warm Regions Using Climatological Parameters," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-10, March.
    2. Simonsen, L. & Clarke, M.J. & Williamson, G.D. & Stroup, D.F. & Arden, N.H. & Schonberger, L.B., 1997. "The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: Introducing a severity index," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(12), pages 1944-1950.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diana Gomez-Barroso & Inmaculada León-Gómez & Concepción Delgado-Sanz & Amparo Larrauri, 2017. "Climatic Factors and Influenza Transmission, Spain, 2010–2015," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-9, November.
    2. Nan Zhang & Yuguo Li, 2018. "Transmission of Influenza A in a Student Office Based on Realistic Person-to-Person Contact and Surface Touch Behaviour," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, August.

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