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Assessment of Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasts Based on IFS/ECMWF Data and Observations in the South of Portugal

Author

Listed:
  • João Perdigão

    (Instituto de Ciências da Terra, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal)

  • Paulo Canhoto

    (Instituto de Ciências da Terra, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal
    Departamento de Física, Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal)

  • Rui Salgado

    (Instituto de Ciências da Terra, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal
    Departamento de Física, Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal)

  • Maria João Costa

    (Instituto de Ciências da Terra, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal
    Departamento de Física, Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade de Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal)

Abstract

Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) predictions obtained from the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (IFS/ECMWF) were compared against ground-based observational data for one location at the south of Portugal (Évora). Hourly and daily DNI values were analyzed for different temporal forecast horizons (1 to 3 days ahead) and results show that the IFS/ECMWF slightly overestimates DNI for the period of analysis (1 August 2018 until 31 July 2019) with a fairly good agreement between model and observations. Hourly basis evaluation shows relatively high errors, independently of the forecast day. Root mean square error increases as the forecast time increases with a relative error of ~45% between the first and the last forecast. Similar patterns are observed in the daily analysis with comparable magnitude errors. The correlation coefficients between forecast and observed data are above 0.7 for both hourly and daily data. A methodology based on a new DNI attenuation Index (DAI) was developed to estimate cloud fraction from hourly values integrated over a day and, with that, to correlate the accuracy of the forecast with sky conditions. This correlation with DAI reveals that in IFS/ECMWF model, the atmosphere as being more transparent than reality since cloud cover is underestimated in the majority of the months of the year, taking the ground-based measurements as a reference. The use of the DAI estimator confirms that the errors in IFS/ECMWF are larger under cloudy skies than under clear sky. The development and application of a post-processing methodology improves the DNI predictions from the IFS/ECMWF outputs, with a decrease of error of the order of ~30%, when compared with raw data.

Suggested Citation

  • João Perdigão & Paulo Canhoto & Rui Salgado & Maria João Costa, 2020. "Assessment of Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasts Based on IFS/ECMWF Data and Observations in the South of Portugal," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-21, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:2:y:2020:i:2:p:7-150:d:359168
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sonia Leva, 2021. "Editorial for Special Issue: “Feature Papers of Forecasting”," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-3, February.
    2. Andrea Salimbeni & Mario Porru & Luca Massidda & Alfonso Damiano, 2020. "A Forecasting-Based Control Algorithm for Improving Energy Managment in High Concentrator Photovoltaic Power Plant Integrated with Energy Storage Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-20, September.

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