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Hybrid Predictive Models for Accurate Forecasting in PV Systems

Author

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  • Emanuele Ogliari

    (Department of Energy, Polytechnic University of Milan, Via La Masa 34, I-20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Francesco Grimaccia

    (Department of Energy, Polytechnic University of Milan, Via La Masa 34, I-20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Sonia Leva

    (Department of Energy, Polytechnic University of Milan, Via La Masa 34, I-20156 Milano, Italy)

  • Marco Mussetta

    (Department of Energy, Polytechnic University of Milan, Via La Masa 34, I-20156 Milano, Italy)

Abstract

The accurate forecasting of energy production from renewable sources represents an important topic also looking at different national authorities that are starting to stimulate a greater responsibility towards plants using non-programmable renewables. In this paper the authors use advanced hybrid evolutionary techniques of computational intelligence applied to photovoltaic systems forecasting, analyzing the predictions obtained by comparing different definitions of the forecasting error.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Ogliari & Francesco Grimaccia & Sonia Leva & Marco Mussetta, 2013. "Hybrid Predictive Models for Accurate Forecasting in PV Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-12, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:4:p:1918-1929:d:24737
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios I. Salamanis & Georgia Xanthopoulou & Napoleon Bezas & Christos Timplalexis & Angelina D. Bintoudi & Lampros Zyglakis & Apostolos C. Tsolakis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dionysios Kehagias & , 2020. "Benchmark Comparison of Analytical, Data-Based and Hybrid Models for Multi-Step Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-31, November.
    2. Stéphanie Monjoly & Maina André & Rudy Calif & Ted Soubdhan, 2019. "Forecast Horizon and Solar Variability Influences on the Performances of Multiscale Hybrid Forecast Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Xiao, Zenan & Huang, Xiaoqiao & Liu, Jun & Li, Chengli & Tai, Yonghang, 2023. "A novel method based on time series ensemble model for hourly photovoltaic power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Roberto S. Faranda & Hossein Hafezi & Sonia Leva & Marco Mussetta & Emanuele Ogliari, 2015. "The Optimum PV Plant for a Given Solar DC/AC Converter," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Ogliari, Emanuele & Dolara, Alberto & Manzolini, Giampaolo & Leva, Sonia, 2017. "Physical and hybrid methods comparison for the day ahead PV output power forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 11-21.
    6. Ayvazoğluyüksel, Özge & Filik, Ümmühan Başaran, 2018. "Estimation methods of global solar radiation, cell temperature and solar power forecasting: A review and case study in Eskişehir," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 639-653.
    7. Wahiba Yaïci & Michela Longo & Evgueniy Entchev & Federica Foiadelli, 2017. "Simulation Study on the Effect of Reduced Inputs of Artificial Neural Networks on the Predictive Performance of the Solar Energy System," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Zhaoxuan Li & SM Mahbobur Rahman & Rolando Vega & Bing Dong, 2016. "A Hierarchical Approach Using Machine Learning Methods in Solar Photovoltaic Energy Production Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, January.
    9. Ümmühan Başaran Filik & Tansu Filik & Ömer Nezih Gerek, 2018. "A Hysteresis Model for Fixed and Sun Tracking Solar PV Power Generation Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Grzegorz Dec & Grzegorz Drałus & Damian Mazur & Bogdan Kwiatkowski, 2021. "Forecasting Models of Daily Energy Generation by PV Panels Using Fuzzy Logic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, March.
    11. Jabar H. Yousif & Hussein A. Kazem & John Boland, 2017. "Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-19, July.
    12. Alberto Dolara & Francesco Grimaccia & Giulia Magistrati & Gabriele Marchegiani, 2017. "Optimization Models for Islanded Micro-Grids: A Comparative Analysis between Linear Programming and Mixed Integer Programming," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-20, February.
    13. Rafati, Amir & Joorabian, Mahmood & Mashhour, Elaheh & Shaker, Hamid Reza, 2021. "High dimensional very short-term solar power forecasting based on a data-driven heuristic method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    14. Honglu Zhu & Xu Li & Qiao Sun & Ling Nie & Jianxi Yao & Gang Zhao, 2015. "A Power Prediction Method for Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Wavelet Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Alberto Dolara & Francesco Grimaccia & Sonia Leva & Marco Mussetta & Emanuele Ogliari, 2015. "A Physical Hybrid Artificial Neural Network for Short Term Forecasting of PV Plant Power Output," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Muhammad Aslam & Jae-Myeong Lee & Mustafa Raed Altaha & Seung-Jae Lee & Sugwon Hong, 2020. "AE-LSTM Based Deep Learning Model for Degradation Rate Influenced Energy Estimation of a PV System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-14, August.
    17. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    18. Yaser I. Alamin & Mensah K. Anaty & José Domingo Álvarez Hervás & Khalid Bouziane & Manuel Pérez García & Reda Yaagoubi & María del Mar Castilla & Merouan Belkasmi & Mohammed Aggour, 2020. "Very Short-Term Power Forecasting of High Concentrator Photovoltaic Power Facility by Implementing Artificial Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Leva, S. & Dolara, A. & Grimaccia, F. & Mussetta, M. & Ogliari, E., 2017. "Analysis and validation of 24 hours ahead neural network forecasting of photovoltaic output power," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 88-100.
    20. Orest Lozynskyy & Damian Mazur & Yaroslav Marushchak & Bogdan Kwiatkowski & Andriy Lozynskyy & Tadeusz Kwater & Bohdan Kopchak & Przemysław Hawro & Lidiia Kasha & Robert Pękala & Robert Ziemba & Bogus, 2021. "Formation of Characteristic Polynomials on the Basis of Fractional Powers j of Dynamic Systems and Stability Problems of Such Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-35, November.
    21. Mariam Gómez Sánchez & Yunesky Masip Macia & Alejandro Fernández Gil & Carlos Castro & Suleivys M. Nuñez González & Jacqueline Pedrera Yanes, 2020. "A Mathematical Model for the Optimization of Renewable Energy Systems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.

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