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Short-Term Load Forecasting for Microgrids Based on Artificial Neural Networks

Author

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  • Luis Hernandez

    (Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (CIEMAT), Autovía de Navarra A15, salida 56, Lubia 42290, Soria, Spain)

  • Carlos Baladrón

    (Universidad de Valladolid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Telecomunicación, Campus Miguel Delibes, Paseo de Belén 15, Valladolid 47011, Spain)

  • Javier M. Aguiar

    (Universidad de Valladolid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Telecomunicación, Campus Miguel Delibes, Paseo de Belén 15, Valladolid 47011, Spain)

  • Belén Carro

    (Universidad de Valladolid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Telecomunicación, Campus Miguel Delibes, Paseo de Belén 15, Valladolid 47011, Spain)

  • Antonio J. Sanchez-Esguevillas

    (Universidad de Valladolid, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Telecomunicación, Campus Miguel Delibes, Paseo de Belén 15, Valladolid 47011, Spain)

  • Jaime Lloret

    (Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, Departamento de Comunicaciones, Camino Vera s/n. 46022, Valencia, Spain)

Abstract

Electricity is indispensable and of strategic importance to national economies. Consequently, electric utilities make an effort to balance power generation and demand in order to offer a good service at a competitive price. For this purpose, these utilities need electric load forecasts to be as accurate as possible. However, electric load depends on many factors (day of the week, month of the year, etc. ), which makes load forecasting quite a complex process requiring something other than statistical methods. This study presents an electric load forecast architectural model based on an Artificial Neural Network ( ANN ) that performs Short-Term Load Forecasting ( STLF ). In this study, we present the excellent results obtained, and highlight the simplicity of the proposed model. Load forecasting was performed in a geographic location of the size of a potential microgrid , as microgrids appear to be the future of electric power supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Hernandez & Carlos Baladrón & Javier M. Aguiar & Belén Carro & Antonio J. Sanchez-Esguevillas & Jaime Lloret, 2013. "Short-Term Load Forecasting for Microgrids Based on Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:6:y:2013:i:3:p:1385-1408:d:24008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wei Sun & Chongchong Zhang, 2018. "A Hybrid BA-ELM Model Based on Factor Analysis and Similar-Day Approach for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Hernández, Luis & Baladrón, Carlos & Aguiar, Javier M. & Carro, Belén & Sánchez-Esguevillas, Antonio & Lloret, Jaime, 2014. "Artificial neural networks for short-term load forecasting in microgrids environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 252-264.
    3. Ganapathy Ramesh & Jaganathan Logeshwaran & Thangavel Kiruthiga & Jaime Lloret, 2023. "Prediction of Energy Production Level in Large PV Plants through AUTO-Encoder Based Neural-Network (AUTO-NN) with Restricted Boltzmann Feature Extraction," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    4. Yi Liang & Dongxiao Niu & Minquan Ye & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2016. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Wavelet Transform and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Improved Cuckoo Search," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
    5. Feras Alasali & Khaled Nusair & Lina Alhmoud & Eyad Zarour, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand and Load Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, January.
    6. Jin-peng Liu & Chang-ling Li, 2017. "The Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Sperm Whale Algorithm and Wavelet Least Square Support Vector Machine with DWT-IR for Feature Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Seung Wan Kim & Jip Kim & Young Gyu Jin & Yong Tae Yoon, 2016. "Optimal Bidding Strategy for Renewable Microgrid with Active Network Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Li, Wei-Qin & Chang, Li, 2018. "A combination model with variable weight optimization for short-term electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 575-593.
    9. Chan-Uk Yeom & Keun-Chang Kwak, 2017. "Short-Term Electricity-Load Forecasting Using a TSK-Based Extreme Learning Machine with Knowledge Representation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Lianhui Li & Chunyang Mu & Shaohu Ding & Zheng Wang & Runyang Mo & Yongfeng Song, 2015. "A Robust Weighted Combination Forecasting Method Based on Forecast Model Filtering and Adaptive Variable Weight Determination," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    11. Peplinski, McKenna & Dilkina, Bistra & Chen, Mo & Silva, Sam J. & Ban-Weiss, George A. & Sanders, Kelly T., 2024. "A machine learning framework to estimate residential electricity demand based on smart meter electricity, climate, building characteristics, and socioeconomic datasets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    12. Seunghyoung Ryu & Jaekoo Noh & Hongseok Kim, 2016. "Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-20, December.
    13. Amrutha Raju Battula & Sandeep Vuddanti & Surender Reddy Salkuti, 2021. "Review of Energy Management System Approaches in Microgrids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-32, September.
    14. Akash Kumar & Bing Yan & Ace Bilton, 2022. "Machine Learning-Based Load Forecasting for Nanogrid Peak Load Cost Reduction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-23, September.
    15. Luis Hernández & Carlos Baladrón & Javier M. Aguiar & Lorena Calavia & Belén Carro & Antonio Sánchez-Esguevillas & Pablo García & Jaime Lloret, 2013. "Experimental Analysis of the Input Variables’ Relevance to Forecast Next Day’s Aggregated Electric Demand Using Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(6), pages 1-22, June.
    16. Jaime Buitrago & Shihab Asfour, 2017. "Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Loads Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Artificial Neural Networks with Exogenous Vector Inputs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-24, January.
    17. Svetlana Solodusha & Mikhail Bulatov, 2021. "Integral Equations Related to Volterra Series and Inverse Problems: Elements of Theory and Applications in Heat Power Engineering," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-18, August.
    18. Andrea Bonfiglio & Massimo Brignone & Marco Invernizzi & Alessandro Labella & Daniele Mestriner & Renato Procopio, 2017. "A Simplified Microgrid Model for the Validation of Islanded Control Logics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-28, August.
    19. Cheng-Ming Lee & Chia-Nan Ko, 2016. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Adaptive Annealing Learning Algorithm Based Reinforcement Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-15, November.
    20. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2018. "Optimal Deep Learning LSTM Model for Electric Load Forecasting using Feature Selection and Genetic Algorithm: Comparison with Machine Learning Approaches †," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.
    21. Thomas Price & Gordon Parker & Gail Vaucher & Robert Jane & Morris Berman, 2022. "Microgrid Energy Management during High-Stress Operation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-11, September.
    22. Yuqi Dong & Xuejiao Ma & Chenchen Ma & Jianzhou Wang, 2016. "Research and Application of a Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Data Decomposition for Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-30, December.
    23. Powell, Kody M. & Sriprasad, Akshay & Cole, Wesley J. & Edgar, Thomas F., 2014. "Heating, cooling, and electrical load forecasting for a large-scale district energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 877-885.
    24. Feras Alasali & Husam Foudeh & Esraa Mousa Ali & Khaled Nusair & William Holderbaum, 2021. "Forecasting and Modelling the Uncertainty of Low Voltage Network Demand and the Effect of Renewable Energy Sources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-31, April.
    25. Salah Bouktif & Ali Fiaz & Ali Ouni & Mohamed Adel Serhani, 2019. "Single and Multi-Sequence Deep Learning Models for Short and Medium Term Electric Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21, January.

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