IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i3p1295-d1046879.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Enhancement Method Based on Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network for Short-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Jinyuan Liu

    (College of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China)

  • Shouxi Wang

    (College of Petroleum Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu 610500, China)

  • Nan Wei

    (Cyberspace Institute of Advanced Technology, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou 510000, China)

  • Yi Yang

    (College of Petroleum Engineering, Xi’an Shiyou University, Xi’an 710065, China)

  • Yihao Lv

    (College of Petroleum Engineering, Xi’an Shiyou University, Xi’an 710065, China)

  • Xu Wang

    (International Education, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4PY, UK)

  • Fanhua Zeng

    (Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada)

Abstract

Artificial intelligence models have been widely applied for natural gas consumption forecasting over the past decades, especially for short-term consumption forecasting. This paper proposes a three-layer neural network forecasting model that can extract key information from input factors and improve the weight optimization mechanism of long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network to effectively forecast short-term consumption. In the proposed model, a convolutional neural network (CNN) layer is adopted to extract the features among various factors affecting natural gas consumption and improve computing efficiency. The LSTM layer is able to learn and save the long-distance state through the gating mechanism and overcomes the defects of gradient disappearance and explosion in the recurrent neural network. To solve the problem of encoding input sequences as fixed-length vectors, the layer of attention (ATT) is used to optimize the assignment of weights and highlight the key sequences. Apart from the comparisons with other popular forecasting models, the performance and robustness of the proposed model are validated on datasets with different fluctuations and complexities. Compared with traditional two-layer models (CNN-LSTM and LSTM-ATT), the mean absolute range normalized errors (MARNE) of the proposed model in Athens and Spata are improved by more than 16% and 11%, respectively. In comparison with single LSTM, back propagation neural network, support vector regression, and multiple linear regression methods, the improvement in MARNE exceeds 42% in Athens. The coefficient of determination is improved by more than 25%, even in the high-complexity dataset, Spata.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinyuan Liu & Shouxi Wang & Nan Wei & Yi Yang & Yihao Lv & Xu Wang & Fanhua Zeng, 2023. "An Enhancement Method Based on Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network for Short-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-14, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1295-:d:1046879
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1295/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/3/1295/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yun Bai & Zhenzhong Sun & Bo Zeng & Jianyu Long & Lin Li & José Valente Oliveira & Chuan Li, 2019. "A comparison of dimension reduction techniques for support vector machine modeling of multi-parameter manufacturing quality prediction," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 2245-2256, June.
    2. Changrui Deng & Xiaoyuan Zhang & Yanmei Huang & Yukun Bao, 2021. "Equipping Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Models with Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Electricity Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-14, July.
    3. Wei, Nan & Yin, Lihua & Li, Chao & Liu, Jinyuan & Li, Changjun & Huang, Yuanyuan & Zeng, Fanhua, 2022. "Data complexity of daily natural gas consumption: Measurement and impact on forecasting performance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    4. Kim, Tae-Young & Cho, Sung-Bae, 2019. "Predicting residential energy consumption using CNN-LSTM neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 72-81.
    5. Guo-Feng Fan & An Wang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2018. "Combining Grey Model and Self-Adapting Intelligent Grey Model with Genetic Algorithm and Annual Share Changes in Natural Gas Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, June.
    6. Shahid, Farah & Zameer, Aneela & Muneeb, Muhammad, 2020. "Predictions for COVID-19 with deep learning models of LSTM, GRU and Bi-LSTM," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    7. Hribar, Rok & Potočnik, Primož & Šilc, Jurij & Papa, Gregor, 2019. "A comparison of models for forecasting the residential natural gas demand of an urban area," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 511-522.
    8. Seok-Jun Bu & Sung-Bae Cho, 2020. "Time Series Forecasting with Multi-Headed Attention-Based Deep Learning for Residential Energy Consumption," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    9. Jean Gaston Tamba & Salom Ndjakomo Essiane & Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Francis Djanna Koffi & Jean Luc Nsouand l & Bozidar Soldo & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 216-249.
    10. Wei, Nan & Yin, Lihua & Li, Chao & Li, Changjun & Chan, Christine & Zeng, Fanhua, 2021. "Forecasting the daily natural gas consumption with an accurate white-box model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    11. Beyca, Omer Faruk & Ervural, Beyzanur Cayir & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Ozuyar, Pinar Gokcin & Zaim, Selim, 2019. "Using machine learning tools for forecasting natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 937-949.
    12. Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.
    13. Nan Wei & Changjun Li & Jiehao Duan & Jinyuan Liu & Fanhua Zeng, 2019. "Daily Natural Gas Load Forecasting Based on a Hybrid Deep Learning Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Jinyuan & Wang, Shouxi & Wei, Nan & Qiao, Weibiao & Li, Ze & Zeng, Fanhua, 2023. "A clustering-based feature enhancement method for short-term natural gas consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei, Nan & Yin, Lihua & Li, Chao & Li, Changjun & Chan, Christine & Zeng, Fanhua, 2021. "Forecasting the daily natural gas consumption with an accurate white-box model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    2. Qiao, Weibiao & Liu, Wei & Liu, Enbin, 2021. "A combination model based on wavelet transform for predicting the difference between monthly natural gas production and consumption of U.S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    3. Liu, Jinyuan & Wang, Shouxi & Wei, Nan & Qiao, Weibiao & Li, Ze & Zeng, Fanhua, 2023. "A clustering-based feature enhancement method for short-term natural gas consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    4. Tomasz Cieślik & Piotr Narloch & Adam Szurlej & Krzysztof Kogut, 2022. "Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    5. Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou & Katarzyna Poczeta & Dionysis Bochtis & George Stamoulis, 2020. "Forecasting of Day-Ahead Natural Gas Consumption Demand in Greece Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-32, May.
    6. Ayşe Özmen, 2023. "Sparse regression modeling for short- and long‐term natural gas demand prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(2), pages 921-946, March.
    7. Wei, Nan & Yin, Lihua & Li, Chao & Liu, Jinyuan & Li, Changjun & Huang, Yuanyuan & Zeng, Fanhua, 2022. "Data complexity of daily natural gas consumption: Measurement and impact on forecasting performance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    8. Ding, Jia & Zhao, Yuxuan & Jin, Junyang, 2023. "Forecasting natural gas consumption with multiple seasonal patterns," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    9. Beyca, Omer Faruk & Ervural, Beyzanur Cayir & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Ozuyar, Pinar Gokcin & Zaim, Selim, 2019. "Using machine learning tools for forecasting natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 937-949.
    10. Bartłomiej Gaweł & Andrzej Paliński, 2021. "Long-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting Based on Analog Method and Fuzzy Decision Tree," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-26, August.
    11. Du, Jian & Zheng, Jianqin & Liang, Yongtu & Lu, Xinyi & Klemeš, Jiří Jaromír & Varbanov, Petar Sabev & Shahzad, Khurram & Rashid, Muhammad Imtiaz & Ali, Arshid Mahmood & Liao, Qi & Wang, Bohong, 2022. "A hybrid deep learning framework for predicting daily natural gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    12. Wei, Nan & Yin, Lihua & Li, Chao & Wang, Wei & Qiao, Weibiao & Li, Changjun & Zeng, Fanhua & Fu, Lingdi, 2022. "Short-term load forecasting using detrend singular spectrum fluctuation analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    13. Bartłomiej Gaweł & Andrzej Paliński, 2024. "Global and Local Approaches for Forecasting of Long-Term Natural Gas Consumption in Poland Based on Hierarchical Short Time Series," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-25, January.
    14. Svoboda, Radek & Kotik, Vojtech & Platos, Jan, 2021. "Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting from long-term data collection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    15. Lu, Fei & Ma, Feng & Li, Pan & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Natural gas volatility predictability in a data-rich world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. K, Ashin Nishan M & ASHIQ, MUHAMMED V, 2019. "Role of Energy use in the Prediction of CO2 Emissions and Growth in India: An Application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)," SocArXiv gkpbu, Center for Open Science.
    17. Jun Hao & Xiaolei Sun & Qianqian Feng, 2020. "A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, January.
    18. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "US natural gas consumption prediction using an improved kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    19. Wenchao Ban & Liangduo Shen, 2022. "PM2.5 Prediction Based on the CEEMDAN Algorithm and a Machine Learning Hybrid Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-15, December.
    20. Song, Jiancai & Zhang, Liyi & Jiang, Qingling & Ma, Yunpeng & Zhang, Xinxin & Xue, Guixiang & Shen, Xingliang & Wu, Xiangdong, 2022. "Estimate the daily consumption of natural gas in district heating system based on a hybrid seasonal decomposition and temporal convolutional network model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:1295-:d:1046879. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.