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Multistep Forecasting of Power Flow Based on LSTM Autoencoder: A Study Case in Regional Grid Cluster Proposal

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  • Fachrizal Aksan

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland)

  • Yang Li

    (Department of Energy Distribution and High Voltage Engineering, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, 03046 Cottbus, Germany)

  • Vishnu Suresh

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland)

  • Przemysław Janik

    (Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw, Poland)

Abstract

A regional grid cluster proposal is required to tackle power grid complexities and evaluate the impact of decentralized renewable energy generation. However, implementing regional grid clusters poses challenges in power flow forecasting owing to the inherent variability of renewable power generation and diverse power load behavior. Accurate forecasting is vital for monitoring the imported power during peak regional load periods and surplus power generation exported from the studied region. This study addressed the challenge of multistep bidirectional power flow forecasting by proposing an LSTM autoencoder model. During the training stage, the proposed model and baseline models were developed using autotune hyperparameters to fine-tune the models and maximize their performance. The model utilized the last 6 h leading up to the current time (24 steps of 15 min intervals) to predict the power flow 1 h ahead (4 steps of 15 min intervals) from the current time. In the model evaluation stage, the proposed model achieved the lowest RMSE and MAE scores with values of 32.243 MW and 24.154 MW, respectively. In addition, it achieved a good R 2 score of 0.93. The evaluation metrics demonstrated that the LSTM autoencoder outperformed the other models for multistep forecasting task in a regional grid cluster proposal.

Suggested Citation

  • Fachrizal Aksan & Yang Li & Vishnu Suresh & Przemysław Janik, 2023. "Multistep Forecasting of Power Flow Based on LSTM Autoencoder: A Study Case in Regional Grid Cluster Proposal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:13:p:5014-:d:1181789
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fachrizal Aksan & Vishnu Suresh & Przemysław Janik & Tomasz Sikorski, 2023. "Load Forecasting for the Laser Metal Processing Industry Using VMD and Hybrid Deep Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.

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