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Occupancy Prediction Using Differential Evolution Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jonas Bielskus

    (Department of Building Energetics, Faculty of Environmental Engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 10223 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • Violeta Motuzienė

    (Department of Building Energetics, Faculty of Environmental Engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 10223 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • Tatjana Vilutienė

    (Department of Construction Management and Real Estate, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 10223 Vilnius, Lithuania)

  • Audrius Indriulionis

    (Department of Business Technologies and Entrepreneurship, Faculty of Business Management, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 10223 Vilnius, Lithuania)

Abstract

Despite increasing energy efficiency requirements, the full potential of energy efficiency is still unlocked; many buildings in the EU tend to consume more energy than predicted. Gathering data and developing models to predict occupants’ behaviour is seen as the next frontier in sustainable design. Measurements in the analysed open-space office showed accordingly 3.5 and 2.7 times lower occupancy compared to the ones given by DesignBuilder’s and EN 16798-1. This proves that proposed occupancy patterns are only suitable for typical open-space offices. The results of the previous studies and proposed occupancy prediction models have limited applications and limited accuracies. In this paper, the hybrid differential evolution online sequential extreme learning machine (DE-OSELM) model was applied for building occupants’ presence prediction in open-space office. The model was not previously applied in this area of research. It was found that prediction using experimentally gained indoor and outdoor parameters for the whole analysed period resulted in a correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.72. The best correlation was found with indoor CO 2 concentration—R 2 = 0.71 for the analysed period. It was concluded that a 4 week measurement period was sufficient for the prediction of the building’s occupancy and that DE-OSELM is a fast and reliable model suitable for this purpose.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonas Bielskus & Violeta Motuzienė & Tatjana Vilutienė & Audrius Indriulionis, 2020. "Occupancy Prediction Using Differential Evolution Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-20, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:13:y:2020:i:15:p:4033-:d:394387
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Panagiotis Korkidis & Anastasios Dounis & Panagiotis Kofinas, 2021. "Computational Intelligence Technologies for Occupancy Estimation and Comfort Control in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-33, August.
    2. Rasa Džiugaitė-Tumėnienė & Rūta Mikučionienė & Giedrė Streckienė & Juozas Bielskus, 2021. "Development and Analysis of a Dynamic Energy Model of an Office Using a Building Management System (BMS) and Actual Measurement Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, October.
    3. Joanna Piotrowska-Woroniak & Krzysztof Cieśliński & Grzegorz Woroniak & Jonas Bielskus, 2022. "The Impact of Thermo-Modernization and Forecast Regulation on the Reduction of Thermal Energy Consumption and Reduction of Pollutant Emissions into the Atmosphere on the Example of Prefabricated Build," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-32, April.
    4. Yuan-Kang Wu & Cheng-Liang Huang & Quoc-Thang Phan & Yuan-Yao Li, 2022. "Completed Review of Various Solar Power Forecasting Techniques Considering Different Viewpoints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, May.
    5. Amini Toosi, Hashem & Del Pero, Claudio & Leonforte, Fabrizio & Lavagna, Monica & Aste, Niccolò, 2023. "Machine learning for performance prediction in smart buildings: Photovoltaic self-consumption and life cycle cost optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).

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