IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i24p4669-d295664.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using Artificial Intelligence to Predict Wind Speed for Energy Application in Saudi Arabia

Author

Listed:
  • Tayeb Brahimi

    (Energy Research Lab, College of Engineering, Effat University, P.O. Box 34689, Jeddah 21478, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

Predicting wind speed for wind energy conversion systems (WECS) is an essential monitor, control, plan, and dispatch generated power and meets customer needs. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia recently set ambitious targets in its national transformation program and Vision 2030 to move away from oil dependence and redirect oil and gas exploration efforts to other higher-value uses, chiefly meeting 10% of its energy demand through renewable energy sources. In this paper, we propose the use of the artificial neural networks (ANNs) method as a means of predicting daily wind speed in a number of locations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on multiple local meteorological measurement data provided by K.A.CARE. The suggested model is a feed-forward neural network model with the administered learning technique using a back-propagation algorithm. Results indicate that the best structure is obtained with thirty neurons in the hidden layers matching a minimum root mean square error (RMSE) and the highest correlation coefficient (R). A comparison between predicted and actual data from meteorological stations showed good agreement. A comparison between five machine learning algorithms, namely ANN, support vector machines (SVM), random tree, random forest, and RepTree revealed that random tree has low correlation and relatively high root mean square error. The significance of the present study relies on its ability to predict wind speeds, a necessary prerequisite to executing sustainable integration of wind power into Saudi Arabia’s electrical grid, assisting operators in efficiently managing generated power, and helping achieve the energy efficiency and production targets of Vision 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Tayeb Brahimi, 2019. "Using Artificial Intelligence to Predict Wind Speed for Energy Application in Saudi Arabia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:24:p:4669-:d:295664
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/24/4669/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/24/4669/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Al-Yahyai, Sultan & Charabi, Yassine & Gastli, Adel, 2010. "Review of the use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Models for wind energy assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 3192-3198, December.
    2. Al-Abbadi, Naif M., 2005. "Wind energy resource assessment for five locations in Saudi Arabia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1489-1499.
    3. Aasim, & Singh, S.N. & Mohapatra, Abheejeet, 2019. "Repeated wavelet transform based ARIMA model for very short-term wind speed forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 758-768.
    4. David Barbosa de Alencar & Carolina De Mattos Affonso & Roberto Célio Limão de Oliveira & Jorge Laureano Moya Rodríguez & Jandecy Cabral Leite & José Carlos Reston Filho, 2017. "Different Models for Forecasting Wind Power Generation: Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, November.
    5. Amir Mosavi & Mohsen Salimi & Sina Faizollahzadeh Ardabili & Timon Rabczuk & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Annamaria R. Varkonyi-Koczy, 2019. "State of the Art of Machine Learning Models in Energy Systems, a Systematic Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-42, April.
    6. Sun, Gaiping & Jiang, Chuanwen & Cheng, Pan & Liu, Yangyang & Wang, Xu & Fu, Yang & He, Yang, 2018. "Short-term wind power forecasts by a synthetical similar time series data mining method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 575-584.
    7. Jubran Alshahrani & Peter Boait, 2018. "Reducing High Energy Demand Associated with Air-Conditioning Needs in Saudi Arabia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yitian Xing & Fue-Sang Lien & William Melek & Eugene Yee, 2022. "A Multi-Hour Ahead Wind Power Forecasting System Based on a WRF-TOPSIS-ANFIS Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-35, July.
    2. Sayeed Rushd & Ezz Ahmed & Shahriar Mahmud & SK Safdar Hossain, 2021. "A Two-Parameter Model for Water-Lubricated Pipeline Transportation of Unconventional Crudes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-18, September.
    3. Shereen K. Sibie & Mohamed F. El-Amin & Shuyu Sun, 2021. "Modeling of Water Generation from Air Using Anhydrous Salts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, June.
    4. Mohamed Mohana & Abdelaziz Salah Saidi & Salem Alelyani & Mohammed J. Alshayeb & Suhail Basha & Ali Eisa Anqi, 2021. "Small-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Power Prediction for Residential Load in Saudi Arabia Using Machine Learning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-18, October.
    5. Noman, Abdullah Al & Tasneem, Zinat & Sahed, Md. Fahad & Muyeen, S.M. & Das, Sajal K. & Alam, Firoz, 2022. "Towards next generation Savonius wind turbine: Artificial intelligence in blade design trends and framework," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    6. Khadijah Barashid & Amr Munshi & Ahmad Alhindi, 2023. "Wind Farm Power Prediction Considering Layout and Wake Effect: Case Study of Saudi Arabia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-22, January.
    7. Ghadah Alkhayat & Syed Hamid Hasan & Rashid Mehmood, 2023. "A Hybrid Model of Variational Mode Decomposition and Long Short-Term Memory for Next-Hour Wind Speed Forecasting in a Hot Desert Climate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-39, December.
    8. Luis Baquero & Herena Torio & Paul Leask, 2022. "Machine Learning Algorithms for Vertical Wind Speed Data Extrapolation: Comparison and Performance Using Mesoscale and Measured Site Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-20, July.
    9. Konstantinos Blazakis & Yiannis Katsigiannis & Georgios Stavrakakis, 2022. "One-Day-Ahead Solar Irradiation and Windspeed Forecasting with Advanced Deep Learning Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-25, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. López, Germánico & Arboleya, Pablo, 2022. "Short-term wind speed forecasting over complex terrain using linear regression models and multivariable LSTM and NARX networks in the Andes Mountains, Ecuador," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 351-368.
    2. Siavash Asiaban & Nezmin Kayedpour & Arash E. Samani & Dimitar Bozalakov & Jeroen D. M. De Kooning & Guillaume Crevecoeur & Lieven Vandevelde, 2021. "Wind and Solar Intermittency and the Associated Integration Challenges: A Comprehensive Review Including the Status in the Belgian Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-41, May.
    3. Ye, Lin & Li, Yilin & Pei, Ming & Zhao, Yongning & Li, Zhuo & Lu, Peng, 2022. "A novel integrated method for short-term wind power forecasting based on fluctuation clustering and history matching," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 327(C).
    4. Hu, Huanling & Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang, 2020. "Forecasting energy consumption and wind power generation using deep echo state network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 598-613.
    5. Pirhooshyaran, Mohammad & Scheinberg, Katya & Snyder, Lawrence V., 2020. "Feature engineering and forecasting via derivative-free optimization and ensemble of sequence-to-sequence networks with applications in renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    6. Hu, Shuai & Xiang, Yue & Zhang, Hongcai & Xie, Shanyi & Li, Jianhua & Gu, Chenghong & Sun, Wei & Liu, Junyong, 2021. "Hybrid forecasting method for wind power integrating spatial correlation and corrected numerical weather prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    7. Li, Min & Yang, Yi & He, Zhaoshuang & Guo, Xinbo & Zhang, Ruisheng & Huang, Bingqing, 2023. "A wind speed forecasting model based on multi-objective algorithm and interpretability learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Chitsazan, Mohammad Amin & Sami Fadali, M. & Trzynadlowski, Andrzej M., 2019. "Wind speed and wind direction forecasting using echo state network with nonlinear functions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 879-889.
    9. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    10. Lim, Juin Yau & Safder, Usman & How, Bing Shen & Ifaei, Pouya & Yoo, Chang Kyoo, 2021. "Nationwide sustainable renewable energy and Power-to-X deployment planning in South Korea assisted with forecasting model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    11. Liang, Tao & Zhao, Qing & Lv, Qingzhao & Sun, Hexu, 2021. "A novel wind speed prediction strategy based on Bi-LSTM, MOOFADA and transfer learning for centralized control centers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    12. Alyami, Saleh. H. & Rezgui, Yacine & Kwan, Alan, 2013. "Developing sustainable building assessment scheme for Saudi Arabia: Delphi consultation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 43-54.
    13. Alvaro Furlani Bastos & Surya Santoso, 2021. "Optimization Techniques for Mining Power Quality Data and Processing Unbalanced Datasets in Machine Learning Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Yiqi Chu & Chengcai Li & Yefang Wang & Jing Li & Jian Li, 2016. "A Long-Term Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasting System with Weather Adapted Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Nor, Khalid Mohamed & Shaaban, Mohamed & Abdul Rahman, Hasimah, 2014. "Feasibility assessment of wind energy resources in Malaysia based on NWP models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 147-154.
    17. Alessandro Bosisio & Matteo Moncecchi & Andrea Morotti & Marco Merlo, 2021. "Machine Learning and GIS Approach for Electrical Load Assessment to Increase Distribution Networks Resilience," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-23, July.
    18. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Mineti, Leandro Brioschi & Prates, Marcos Oliveira, 2021. "Dynamic time scan forecasting for multi-step wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 584-595.
    19. Islam, M.R. & Saidur, R. & Rahim, N.A., 2011. "Assessment of wind energy potentiality at Kudat and Labuan, Malaysia using Weibull distribution function," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 985-992.
    20. Xinyu Han & Rongrong Li, 2019. "Comparison of Forecasting Energy Consumption in East Africa Using the MGM, NMGM, MGM-ARIMA, and NMGM-ARIMA Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-24, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:24:p:4669-:d:295664. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.