IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v12y2019i14p2730-d249050.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accuracy Enhancement for Zone Mapping of a Solar Radiation Forecasting Based Multi-Objective Model for Better Management of the Generation of Renewable Energy

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Ehteram

    (Department of Water Engineering and Hydraulic Structures, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan 35131-19111, Iran)

  • Ali Najah Ahmed

    (Institute of Energy Infrastructure (IEI), Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Chow Ming Fai

    (Institute of Energy Infrastructure (IEI), Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia
    Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional (UNITEN), Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia)

  • Ahmed El-Shafie

    (Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia)

Abstract

The estimation of solar radiation for planning current and future periods in different fields, such as renewable energy generation, is very important for decision makers. The current study presents a hybrid model structure based on a multi-objective shark algorithm and fuzzy method for forecasting and generating a zone map for solar radiation as an alternative solution for future renewable energy production. The multi-objective shark algorithm attempts to select the best input combination for solar radiation (SR) estimation and the optimal value of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) parameter, and the power parameter of the inverse distance weight (IDW) is computed. Three provinces in Iran with different climates and air quality index conditions have been considered as case studies for this research. In addition, comparative analysis has been carried out with other models, including multi-objective genetic algorithm-ANFIS and multi-objective particle swarm optimization-ANFIS. The Taguchi model is used to obtain the best value of random parameters for multi-objective algorithms. The comparison of the results shows that the relative deviation index (RDI) of the distributed solutions in the Pareto front based multi-objective shark algorithm has the lowest value in the spread index, spacing metric index, favorable distribution, and good diversity. The generated Pareto solutions based on the multi-objective shark algorithm are compared to those based on the genetic algorithm and particle swarm algorithm and found to be the optimal and near ideal solutions. In addition, the determination of the best solution based on a multi-criteria decision model enables the best input to the model to be selected based on different effective parameters. Three different performance indices have been used in this study, including the root mean square error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, and mean absolute error. The generated zone map based on the multi-objective shark algorithm-ANFIS highly matches with the observed data in all zones in all case studies. Additionally, the analysis shows that the air quality index (AQI) should be considered as effective input for SR estimation. Finally, the measurement and analysis of the uncertainty based on the multi-objective shark algorithm-ANFIS were carried out. As a result, the proposed new hybrid model is highly suitable for the generation of accurate zone mapping for different renewable energy generation fields. In addition, the proposed hybrid model showed outstanding performance for the development of a forecasting model for the solar radiation value, which is essential for the decision-makers to draw a future plan for generating renewable energy based solar radiation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Chow Ming Fai & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2019. "Accuracy Enhancement for Zone Mapping of a Solar Radiation Forecasting Based Multi-Objective Model for Better Management of the Generation of Renewable Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-26, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:14:p:2730-:d:249050
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/14/2730/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/12/14/2730/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Furlan, Claudia & de Oliveira, Amauri Pereira & Soares, Jacyra & Codato, Georgia & Escobedo, João Francisco, 2012. "The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 240-254.
    2. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Şahin, Mehmet, 2017. "Forecasting long-term global solar radiation with an ANN algorithm coupled with satellite-derived (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) for regional locations in Queensland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 828-848.
    3. Wang, Hong & Sun, Fubao & Wang, Tingting & Liu, Wenbin, 2018. "Estimation of daily and monthly diffuse radiation from measurements of global solar radiation a case study across China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 226-241.
    4. Meenal, R. & Selvakumar, A. Immanuel, 2018. "Assessment of SVM, empirical and ANN based solar radiation prediction models with most influencing input parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 324-343.
    5. Jorge E. De León-Ruiz & Ignacio Carvajal-Mariscal, 2018. "Mathematical Thermal Modelling of a Direct-Expansion Solar-Assisted Heat Pump Using Multi-Objective Optimization Based on the Energy Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-27, July.
    6. Shirin Karimi & Bahman Jabbarian Amiri & Arash Malekian, 2019. "Similarity Metrics-Based Uncertainty Analysis of River Water Quality Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1927-1945, April.
    7. Zaher Mundher Yaseen & Mohammad Ehteram & Md. Shabbir Hossain & Chow Ming Fai & Suhana Binti Koting & Nuruol Syuhadaa Mohd & Wan Zurina Binti Jaafar & Haitham Abdulmohsin Afan & Lai Sai Hin & Nuratiah, 2019. "A Novel Hybrid Evolutionary Data-Intelligence Algorithm for Irrigation and Power Production Management: Application to Multi-Purpose Reservoir Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-28, April.
    8. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Wang, Xiukang & Lu, Xianghui & Xiang, Youzhen, 2018. "Evaluating the effect of air pollution on global and diffuse solar radiation prediction using support vector machine modeling based on sunshine duration and air temperature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 732-747.
    9. Samuel Atuahene & Yukun Bao & Yao Yevenyo Ziggah & Patricia Semwaah Gyan & Feng Li, 2018. "Short-Term Electric Power Forecasting Using Dual-Stage Hierarchical Wavelet- Particle Swarm Optimization- Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System PSO-ANFIS Approach Based On Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    10. Marzo, A. & Trigo-Gonzalez, M. & Alonso-Montesinos, J. & Martínez-Durbán, M. & López, G. & Ferrada, P. & Fuentealba, E. & Cortés, M. & Batlles, F.J., 2017. "Daily global solar radiation estimation in desert areas using daily extreme temperatures and extraterrestrial radiation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 303-311.
    11. Hamidreza Ghazvinian & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi & Hojat Karami & Saeed Farzin & Mohammad Ehteram & Md Shabbir Hossain & Chow Ming Fai & Huzaifa Bin Hashim & Vijay P Singh & Faizah Che Ros & Ali Najah Ahme, 2019. "Integrated support vector regression and an improved particle swarm optimization-based model for solar radiation prediction," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, May.
    12. Mohammad Mehdi Lotfinejad & Reza Hafezi & Majid Khanali & Seyed Sina Hosseini & Mehdi Mehrpooya & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2018. "A Comparative Assessment of Predicting Daily Solar Radiation Using Bat Neural Network (BNN), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), and Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) System: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-15, May.
    13. Voyant, Cyril & Muselli, Marc & Paoli, Christophe & Nivet, Marie-Laure, 2012. "Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 341-355.
    14. Mofid, Hossein & Jazayeri-Rad, Hooshang & Shahbazian, Mehdi & Fetanat, Abdolvahhab, 2019. "Enhancing the performance of a parallel nitrogen expansion liquefaction process (NELP) using the multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 286-303.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christiaan Oosthuizen & Barend Van Wyk & Yskandar Hamam & Dawood Desai & Yasser Alayli, 2020. "The Use of Gridded Model Output Statistics ( GMOS ) in Energy Forecasting of a Solar Car," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Mohammad Ehteram & Ali Najah Ahmed & Ming Fai Chow & Sarmad Dashti Latif & Kwok-wing Chau & Kai Lun Chong & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2023. "Optimal operation of hydropower reservoirs under climate change," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(10), pages 10627-10659, October.
    3. Ahmed Aljanad & Nadia M. L. Tan & Vassilios G. Agelidis & Hussain Shareef, 2021. "Neural Network Approach for Global Solar Irradiance Prediction at Extremely Short-Time-Intervals Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Yang, Dazhi & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2019. "Automatic hourly solar forecasting using machine learning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 487-498.
    2. Ahmed Aljanad & Nadia M. L. Tan & Vassilios G. Agelidis & Hussain Shareef, 2021. "Neural Network Approach for Global Solar Irradiance Prediction at Extremely Short-Time-Intervals Using Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20, February.
    3. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Zeng, Wenzhi & Wang, Xiukang & Zou, Haiyang, 2019. "Empirical and machine learning models for predicting daily global solar radiation from sunshine duration: A review and case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 186-212.
    4. Lu, Yunbo & Wang, Lunche & Zhu, Canming & Zou, Ling & Zhang, Ming & Feng, Lan & Cao, Qian, 2023. "Predicting surface solar radiation using a hybrid radiative Transfer–Machine learning model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Guijo-Rubio, D. & Durán-Rosal, A.M. & Gutiérrez, P.A. & Gómez-Orellana, A.M. & Casanova-Mateo, C. & Sanz-Justo, J. & Salcedo-Sanz, S. & Hervás-Martínez, C., 2020. "Evolutionary artificial neural networks for accurate solar radiation prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    6. Hasna Hissou & Said Benkirane & Azidine Guezzaz & Mourade Azrour & Abderrahim Beni-Hssane, 2023. "A Novel Machine Learning Approach for Solar Radiation Estimation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, July.
    7. Jiaojiao Feng & Weizhen Wang & Jing Li, 2018. "An LM-BP Neural Network Approach to Estimate Monthly-Mean Daily Global Solar Radiation Using MODIS Atmospheric Products," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Bellido-Jiménez, Juan Antonio & Estévez Gualda, Javier & García-Marín, Amanda Penélope, 2021. "Assessing new intra-daily temperature-based machine learning models to outperform solar radiation predictions in different conditions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    9. Chen, Ji-Long & He, Lei & Yang, Hong & Ma, Maohua & Chen, Qiao & Wu, Sheng-Jun & Xiao, Zuo-lin, 2019. "Empirical models for estimating monthly global solar radiation: A most comprehensive review and comparative case study in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 91-111.
    10. Zhao, Shuting & Wu, Lifeng & Xiang, Youzhen & Dong, Jianhua & Li, Zhen & Liu, Xiaoqiang & Tang, Zijun & Wang, Han & Wang, Xin & An, Jiaqi & Zhang, Fucang & Li, Zhijun, 2022. "Coupling meteorological stations data and satellite data for prediction of global solar radiation with machine learning models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1049-1064.
    11. Ghadah Alkhayat & Syed Hamid Hasan & Rashid Mehmood, 2022. "SENERGY: A Novel Deep Learning-Based Auto-Selective Approach and Tool for Solar Energy Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-55, September.
    12. Jia, Dongyu & Yang, Liwei & Lv, Tao & Liu, Weiping & Gao, Xiaoqing & Zhou, Jiaxin, 2022. "Evaluation of machine learning models for predicting daily global and diffuse solar radiation under different weather/pollution conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 896-906.
    13. Fan, Junliang & Wu, Lifeng & Zhang, Fucang & Cai, Huanjie & Wang, Xiukang & Lu, Xianghui & Xiang, Youzhen, 2018. "Evaluating the effect of air pollution on global and diffuse solar radiation prediction using support vector machine modeling based on sunshine duration and air temperature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 732-747.
    14. Ağbulut, Ümit & Gürel, Ali Etem & Biçen, Yunus, 2021. "Prediction of daily global solar radiation using different machine learning algorithms: Evaluation and comparison," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    15. Ali, Mumtaz & Prasad, Ramendra & Xiang, Yong & Deo, Ravinesh C., 2020. "Near real-time significant wave height forecasting with hybridized multiple linear regression algorithms," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
    17. Trigo-González, Mauricio & Batlles, F.J. & Alonso-Montesinos, Joaquín & Ferrada, Pablo & del Sagrado, J. & Martínez-Durbán, M. & Cortés, Marcelo & Portillo, Carlos & Marzo, Aitor, 2019. "Hourly PV production estimation by means of an exportable multiple linear regression model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 303-312.
    18. Fang, Ping & Fu, Wenlong & Wang, Kai & Xiong, Dongzhen & Zhang, Kai, 2022. "A compositive architecture coupling outlier correction, EWT, nonlinear Volterra multi-model fusion with multi-objective optimization for short-term wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    19. Jorge E. De León-Ruiz & Ignacio Carvajal-Mariscal & Antonin Ponsich, 2019. "Feasibility Analysis and Performance Evaluation and Optimization of a DXSAHP Water Heater Based on the Thermal Capacity of the System: A Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-38, October.
    20. Feiyan Chen & Zhigao Zhou & Aiwen Lin & Jiqiang Niu & Wenmin Qin & Zhong Yang, 2019. "Evaluation of Direct Horizontal Irradiance in China Using a Physically-Based Model and Machine Learning Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:14:p:2730-:d:249050. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.