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A Forecast Model for the Level of Engineering Maturity Impact on Contractor’s Procurement and Construction Costs for Offshore EPC Megaprojects

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  • Myung-Hun Kim

    (Hyundai Heavy Industries, Engineering Management Team, 400 Bangeojinsunhwan-doro, Dong-gu, Ulsan 44114, Korea
    Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology (GIFT), Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea)

  • Eul-Bum Lee

    (Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology (GIFT), Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea
    Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea)

Abstract

This paper focuses on the influence of detailed engineering maturities on offshore engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) project procurement and construction cost performance. The authors propose a detailed engineering completion rating index system (DECRIS) to estimate the engineering maturities, from contract award to beginning of construction or steel cutting. The DECRIS is supplemented in this study with an artificial neural network methodology (ANN) to forecast procurement and construction cost performances. The study shows that R 2 and mean error values using ANN functions are 20.2% higher and 19.7% lower, respectively, than cost performance estimations using linear regressions. The DECRIS cutoff score at each gate and DECRIS forecasting performance of total cost impact were validated through the results of fifteen historical offshore EPC South Korean mega-projects, which contain over 300 procurement cost performance data points in total. Finally, based on the DECRIS and ANN findings and a trade-off optimization using a Monte-Carlo simulation with a genetic algorithm, the authors propose a cost mitigation plan for potential project risks based on optimizing the engineering resources. This research aids both owners and EPC contractors to mitigate cost overrun risks, which could be continuously monitored at the key engineering gates, and engineering resources could be adjusted per optimization results.

Suggested Citation

  • Myung-Hun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee, 2019. "A Forecast Model for the Level of Engineering Maturity Impact on Contractor’s Procurement and Construction Costs for Offshore EPC Megaprojects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:12:p:2295-:d:240246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David E. Burmaster & Paul D. Anderson, 1994. "Principles of Good Practice for the Use of Monte Carlo Techniques in Human Health and Ecological Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 477-481, August.
    2. Mohan Kumaraswamy & Daniel Chan, 1998. "Contributors to construction delays," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 17-29.
    3. Myung-Hun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee & Han-Suk Choi, 2019. "A Forecast and Mitigation Model of Construction Performance by Assessing Detailed Engineering Maturity at Key Milestones for Offshore EPC Mega-Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Myung-Hun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee & Han-Suk Choi, 2018. "Detail Engineering Completion Rating Index System (DECRIS) for Optimal Initiation of Construction Works to Improve Contractors’ Schedule-Cost Performance for Offshore Oil and Gas EPC Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-31, July.
    5. Peter Kaming & Paul Olomolaiye & Gary Holt & Frank Harris, 1997. "Factors influencing construction time and cost overruns on high-rise projects in Indonesia," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 83-94.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Araújo-Rey & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2021. "An Approach to the Analysis of Causes of Delays in Industrial Construction Projects through Planning and Statistical Computing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-21, April.

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