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Non-Probabilistic Time-Varying Reliability-Based Analysis of Corroded Pipelines Considering the Interaction of Multiple Uncertainty Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Xiangqin Hou

    (School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China)

  • Yihuan Wang

    (School of Mechatronic Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China)

  • Peng Zhang

    (School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China)

  • Guojin Qin

    (School of Mechatronic Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China)

Abstract

Reliability analysis of corroded pipelines is critical to the integrity and safe working of pipeline infrastructure. Aiming at less probability information is obtained for corrosion pipeline engineering, and the mechanical properties of pipeline with corrosion defects deteriorate caused by the accumulative effect of corrosion growth. Based on the quasi-static analysis method and non-probability theory, this paper presents a reliability model for assessing corroded pipelines with corrosion growth. In fact, reliability analysis of corroded pipelines needs to consider the interaction of multiple uncertainty variables. By introducing interaction theory, a mathematical model of corrosion defects considering the interaction of variables is put forward. Moreover, this paper develops a non-probabilistic time-varying reliability method for pipeline systems with multiple defects. Thus, several numerical examples are investigated to discuss the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results show that a two-dimensional or even three-dimensional ellipsoid model with correlation has more accurate results to evaluate corroded pipelines under the interaction of multiple corroded defects with poor information. Furthermore, a non-probabilistic time-varying reliability model is established according to the time-varying characteristics of the corroded pipeline under the influence of multiple factors. An effective complement to the theory of non-probabilistic reliability analysis of system is investigated. The analysis of the results suggests that interaction of corroded pipeline has a negligible impact on reliability. It also provides a theoretical basis for maintenance and is of great significance for risk- and reliability-informed decisions regarding buried oil and gas pipelines.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiangqin Hou & Yihuan Wang & Peng Zhang & Guojin Qin, 2019. "Non-Probabilistic Time-Varying Reliability-Based Analysis of Corroded Pipelines Considering the Interaction of Multiple Uncertainty Variables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:10:p:1965-:d:233482
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liu, Zhijian & Liu, Yuanwei & He, Bao-Jie & Xu, Wei & Jin, Guangya & Zhang, Xutao, 2019. "Application and suitability analysis of the key technologies in nearly zero energy buildings in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 329-345.
    2. Peng Zhang & Guojin Qin & Yihuan Wang, 2019. "Risk Assessment System for Oil and Gas Pipelines Laid in One Ditch Based on Quantitative Risk Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Zhou, W. & Xiang, W. & Hong, H.P., 2017. "Sensitivity of system reliability of corroding pipelines to modeling of stochastic growth of corrosion defects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 428-438.
    4. Liu, Jie & Zio, Enrico, 2017. "System dynamic reliability assessment and failure prognostics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 21-36.
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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Ostrowski & Marcin Budzynski, 2021. "Measures of Functional Reliability of Two-Lane Highways," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-20, July.
    2. Younseok Choi & Junkeon Ahn & Daejun Chang, 2021. "Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Plate-Stiffened Prismatic Pressure Vessel with Corrosion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(13), pages 1-19, July.

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