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Research and Application of Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on an Optimal Feature Selection System—A Case Study on Electrical Load Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Yunxuan Dong

    (School of Mathematics and Statics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Jianzhou Wang

    (School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance & Economics, Dalian 116000, China)

  • Chen Wang

    (School of Mathematics and Statics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China)

  • Zhenhai Guo

    (State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 10029, China)

Abstract

The process of modernizing smart grid prominently increases the complexity and uncertainty in scheduling and operation of power systems, and, in order to develop a more reliable, flexible, efficient and resilient grid, electrical load forecasting is not only an important key but is still a difficult and challenging task as well. In this paper, a short-term electrical load forecasting model, with a unit for feature learning named Pyramid System and recurrent neural networks, has been developed and it can effectively promote the stability and security of the power grid. Nine types of methods for feature learning are compared in this work to select the best one for learning target, and two criteria have been employed to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction intervals. Furthermore, an electrical load forecasting method based on recurrent neural networks has been formed to achieve the relational diagram of historical data, and, to be specific, the proposed techniques are applied to electrical load forecasting using the data collected from New South Wales, Australia. The simulation results show that the proposed hybrid models can not only satisfactorily approximate the actual value but they are also able to be effective tools in the planning of smart grids.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunxuan Dong & Jianzhou Wang & Chen Wang & Zhenhai Guo, 2017. "Research and Application of Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on an Optimal Feature Selection System—A Case Study on Electrical Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-27, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:4:p:490-:d:95031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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