IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v10y2017i12p1967-d120374.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast

Author

Listed:
  • Marino Marrocu

    (CRS4, Center for Advanced Studies, Research and Development in Sardinia, loc. Piscina Manna ed. 1, 09010 Pula (CA), Italy)

  • Luca Massidda

    (CRS4, Center for Advanced Studies, Research and Development in Sardinia, loc. Piscina Manna ed. 1, 09010 Pula (CA), Italy)

Abstract

An accurate forecast of the power generated by a wind turbine is of paramount importance for its optimal exploitation. Several forecasting methods have been proposed either based on a physical modeling or using a statistical approach. All of them rely on the availability of high quality measures of local wind speed, corresponding generated power and on numerical weather forecasts. In this paper, a simple and effective wind power forecast technique, based on the probability distribution mapping of wind speed forecast and observed power data, is presented and it is applied to two turbines located on the island of Borkum (Germany) in the North Sea. The wind speed forecast of the ECMWF model at 100 m from the ground is used as the prognostic meteorological parameter. Training procedures are based entirely on relatively short time series of power measurements. Results show that our approach has skills that are similar or better than those obtained using more standard methods when measured with mean absolute error.

Suggested Citation

  • Marino Marrocu & Luca Massidda, 2017. "A Simple and Effective Approach for the Prediction of Turbine Power Production From Wind Speed Forecast," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:12:p:1967-:d:120374
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/12/1967/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/12/1967/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    2. Taslimi-Renani, Ehsan & Modiri-Delshad, Mostafa & Elias, Mohamad Fathi Mohamad & Rahim, Nasrudin Abd., 2016. "Development of an enhanced parametric model for wind turbine power curve," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 544-552.
    3. Pelletier, Francis & Masson, Christian & Tahan, Antoine, 2016. "Wind turbine power curve modelling using artificial neural network," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 207-214.
    4. Whale, J. & McHenry, M.P. & Malla, A., 2013. "Scheduling and conducting power performance testing of a small wind turbine," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 55-61.
    5. Zhao, Haoran & Wu, Qiuwei & Hu, Shuju & Xu, Honghua & Rasmussen, Claus Nygaard, 2015. "Review of energy storage system for wind power integration support," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 545-553.
    6. Jafarian, M. & Ranjbar, A.M., 2010. "Fuzzy modeling techniques and artificial neural networks to estimate annual energy output of a wind turbine," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2008-2014.
    7. Yuan, Shengxi & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Modi, Vijay, 2017. "Benefits of forecasting and energy storage in isolated grids with large wind penetration – The case of Sao Vicente," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 167-174.
    8. Chang, G.W. & Lu, H.J. & Chang, Y.R. & Lee, Y.D., 2017. "An improved neural network-based approach for short-term wind speed and power forecast," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 301-311.
    9. Thapar, Vinay & Agnihotri, Gayatri & Sethi, Vinod Krishna, 2011. "Critical analysis of methods for mathematical modelling of wind turbines," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3166-3177.
    10. Alessandrini, S. & Delle Monache, L. & Sperati, S. & Nissen, J.N., 2015. "A novel application of an analog ensemble for short-term wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 768-781.
    11. Kusiak, Andrew & Zheng, Haiyang & Song, Zhe, 2009. "On-line monitoring of power curves," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1487-1493.
    12. Marčiukaitis, Mantas & Žutautaitė, Inga & Martišauskas, Linas & Jokšas, Benas & Gecevičius, Giedrius & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2017. "Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 732-741.
    13. Marvuglia, Antonino & Messineo, Antonio, 2012. "Monitoring of wind farms’ power curves using machine learning techniques," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 574-583.
    14. Alessandrini, S. & Sperati, S. & Pinson, P., 2013. "A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 271-280.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tatiana Gabderakhmanova & Mattia Marinelli, 2022. "Multi-Energy System Demonstration Pilots on Geographical Islands: An Overview across Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Luca Massidda & Marino Marrocu, 2017. "Decoupling Weather Influence from User Habits for an Optimal Electric Load Forecast System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Jannik Schütz Roungkvist & Peter Enevoldsen, 2020. "Timescale classification in wind forecasting: A review of the state‐of‐the‐art," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 757-768, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Han, Shuang & Qiao, Yanhui & Yan, Ping & Yan, Jie & Liu, Yongqian & Li, Li, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling based on interval extreme probability density for the integration of renewable energies and electric vehicles," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 190-203.
    2. Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Liu, Yongqian & Han, Shuang & Li, Li, 2019. "Uncertainty estimation for wind energy conversion by probabilistic wind turbine power curve modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1356-1370.
    3. Marčiukaitis, Mantas & Žutautaitė, Inga & Martišauskas, Linas & Jokšas, Benas & Gecevičius, Giedrius & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2017. "Non-linear regression model for wind turbine power curve," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 732-741.
    4. Taslimi-Renani, Ehsan & Modiri-Delshad, Mostafa & Elias, Mohamad Fathi Mohamad & Rahim, Nasrudin Abd., 2016. "Development of an enhanced parametric model for wind turbine power curve," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 544-552.
    5. Lydia, M. & Kumar, S. Suresh & Selvakumar, A. Immanuel & Prem Kumar, G. Edwin, 2014. "A comprehensive review on wind turbine power curve modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 452-460.
    6. Rogers, T.J. & Gardner, P. & Dervilis, N. & Worden, K. & Maguire, A.E. & Papatheou, E. & Cross, E.J., 2020. "Probabilistic modelling of wind turbine power curves with application of heteroscedastic Gaussian Process regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1124-1136.
    7. Karamichailidou, Despina & Kaloutsa, Vasiliki & Alexandridis, Alex, 2021. "Wind turbine power curve modeling using radial basis function neural networks and tabu search," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 2137-2152.
    8. Gonzalez, Elena & Stephen, Bruce & Infield, David & Melero, Julio J., 2019. "Using high-frequency SCADA data for wind turbine performance monitoring: A sensitivity study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 841-853.
    9. Francisco Bilendo & Angela Meyer & Hamed Badihi & Ningyun Lu & Philippe Cambron & Bin Jiang, 2022. "Applications and Modeling Techniques of Wind Turbine Power Curve for Wind Farms—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-38, December.
    10. Mehrjoo, Mehrdad & Jafari Jozani, Mohammad & Pawlak, Miroslaw, 2020. "Wind turbine power curve modeling for reliable power prediction using monotonic regression," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 214-222.
    11. Luca Massidda & Marino Marrocu, 2017. "Decoupling Weather Influence from User Habits for an Optimal Electric Load Forecast System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-16, December.
    12. Lahouar, A. & Ben Hadj Slama, J., 2017. "Hour-ahead wind power forecast based on random forests," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 529-541.
    13. Xu, Keyi & Yan, Jie & Zhang, Hao & Zhang, Haoran & Han, Shuang & Liu, Yongqian, 2021. "Quantile based probabilistic wind turbine power curve model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    14. Yiqi Chu & Chengcai Li & Yefang Wang & Jing Li & Jian Li, 2016. "A Long-Term Wind Speed Ensemble Forecasting System with Weather Adapted Correction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Ruiz-Cárdenas, Ramiro & Mineti, Leandro Brioschi & Prates, Marcos Oliveira, 2021. "Dynamic time scan forecasting for multi-step wind speed prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 584-595.
    16. Zhao, Yongning & Ye, Lin & Li, Zhi & Song, Xuri & Lang, Yansheng & Su, Jian, 2016. "A novel bidirectional mechanism based on time series model for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 793-803.
    17. Miguel Á. Rodríguez-López & Emilio Cerdá & Pablo del Rio, 2020. "Modeling Wind-Turbine Power Curves: Effects of Environmental Temperature on Wind Energy Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-21, September.
    18. Shahram Hanifi & Saeid Lotfian & Hossein Zare-Behtash & Andrea Cammarano, 2022. "Offshore Wind Power Forecasting—A New Hyperparameter Optimisation Algorithm for Deep Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-21, September.
    19. Nasery, Praanjal & Aziz Ezzat, Ahmed, 2023. "Yaw-adjusted wind power curve modeling: A local regression approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 1368-1376.
    20. Ravi Pandit & David Infield, 2018. "Gaussian Process Operational Curves for Wind Turbine Condition Monitoring," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-20, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:12:p:1967-:d:120374. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.