IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v10y2022i10p248-d936916.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Internal and External Factors That Determined Private Investment in Ecuador 2007–2020

Author

Listed:
  • Guido Macas-Acosta

    (School of Economics, Universidad Ecotec, Km 13.5 vía a Samborondón, Samborondón 092301, Ecuador)

  • Genesis Macas-Lituma

    (School of Economics, Universidad Ecotec, Km 13.5 vía a Samborondón, Samborondón 092301, Ecuador)

  • Arnaldo Vergara-Romero

    (School of Economics, Universidad Ecotec, Km 13.5 vía a Samborondón, Samborondón 092301, Ecuador)

Abstract

This article studies how electoral processes and internal factors of the Ecuadorian economy affect the dynamics of the country’s business expectations. The hypothesis that the free market and socialist political models in an economy generate different reactions in the expectations of the agents, according to the prevailing macroeconomic context, is tested. The empirical analysis is based on time series tools on quarterly data between 2006 and 2021. The results show that the dynamics of investment adjustment to the relationships of internal factors, electoral processes, and other variables explain 84% of this behavior. This is more accelerated in political contexts that promote the free market and maintain social, political, and economic stability, showing an overreaction of agents to negative economic news following the loss-aversion hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Macas-Acosta & Genesis Macas-Lituma & Arnaldo Vergara-Romero, 2022. "The Internal and External Factors That Determined Private Investment in Ecuador 2007–2020," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-11, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:10:y:2022:i:10:p:248-:d:936916
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/10/10/248/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/10/10/248/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chenet, Hugues & Ryan-Collins, Josh & van Lerven, Frank, 2021. "Finance, climate-change and radical uncertainty: Towards a precautionary approach to financial policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    2. Tomader Gaber Elbasheer Elhassan, 2020. "The Asymmetric Impact of Trade Openness on Inflation in Sudan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(12), pages 1396-1409, December.
    3. Marcin Olkiewicz, 2022. "The Impact of Economic Indicators on the Evolution of Business Confidence during the COVID-19 Pandemic Period," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, April.
    4. Alfaro, Laura, 2005. "Inflation, openness, and exchange-rate regimes: The quest for short-term commitment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 229-249, June.
    5. Joseph Persky, 2000. "The Neoclassical Advent: American Economics at the Dawn of the 20th Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 95-108, Winter.
    6. João Cruz & João Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "Structural Changes in the Duration of Bull Markets and Business Cycle Dynamics," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(3), pages 333-352, September.
    7. Thomas Lux & Duc Thi Luu & Boyan Yanovski, 2020. "An analysis of systemic risk in worldwide economic sentiment indices," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(4), pages 909-928, November.
    8. James Tobin, 2005. "Fisher's The Nature of Capital and Income," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 207-214, January.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    10. Bonilla, Claudio A., 2017. "Social Choice And Time Consistency With Low-Probability Events," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(7), pages 1706-1711, October.
    11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    12. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.
    13. Tomader Gaber Elbasheer Elhassan, 2020. "The Asymmetric Impact of Trade Openness on Inflation in Sudan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 10(12), pages 1396-1409.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ftiti, Zied & Aguir, Abdelkader & Smida, Mounir, 2017. "Time-inconsistency and expansionary business cycle theories: What does matter for the central bank independence–inflation relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 215-227.
    2. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1999. "Mercantilists and classicals: insights from doctrinal history," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 55-82.
    3. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
    4. Goodhart, Charles, 1989. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 293-346, June.
    5. Lucas Papademos, 2005. "Macroeconomic theory and monetary policy: the contributions of Franco Modigliani and the ongoing debate," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 187-214.
    6. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2016. "The New Classical Explanation of the Stagflation: A Psychological Way of Thinking," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 16018, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Masciandaro, Donato, 2022. "Independence, conservatism, and beyond: Monetary policy, central bank governance and central banker preferences (1981–2021)," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    9. Jorge Enrique Restrepo Londono, 1998. "Reglas monetarias en una economía pequena y abierta," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 17(33), pages 61-84, July.
    10. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2023. "Rationality and biases insights from disaggregated firm level inflation expectations data," Working Papers 11050, South African Reserve Bank.
    11. Croitoru Lucian, 2014. "The Liquidity Trap, Democracy and Central Bank Independence," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 61(1), pages 1-14, July.
    12. Nitzan, Jonathan, 1990. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Inflation and Unemployment," EconStor Preprints 157850, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 2003. "Inflation Targeting under Asymmetric Preferences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 763-785, October.
    14. Michelle Baddeley, 2019. "Behavioural Macroeconomic Policy: New perspectives on time inconsistency," Papers 1907.07858, arXiv.org.
    15. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Sergi, Francesco & Guizzo, Danielle, 2019. "An Agenda without a Plan: Robert E. Lucas's Trajectory throught the Public Debate," OSF Preprints 7jpa9_v1, Center for Open Science.
    16. Alexander Mihailov & Katrin Ullrich, 2015. "Institution Design for Macroeconomic Policy," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2015-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    17. Thierry Warin, 2006. "A Note on Post-Modern Monetary Policy," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0617, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    18. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) & Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) & Goryunov, Eugene (Горюнов, Евгений) & Petrova, Diana, 2017. "Analysis of Approaches to Accounting of the Information Effects of Monetary Policy [Анализ Подходов К Учету Информационных Эффектов Денежно-Кредитной Политики]," Working Papers 031723, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    19. Jeffrey M. Lacker & John A. Weinberg, 2007. "Inflation and unemployment: a layperson's guide to the Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Sum), pages 201-227.
    20. Nitzan, Jonathan, 1992. "Inflation As Restructuring. A Theoretical and Empirical Account of the U.S. Experience," EconStor Theses, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, number 157989, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:10:y:2022:i:10:p:248-:d:936916. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.