IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecnmx/v5y2017i4p46-d115044.html

Non-Causality Due to Included Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Umberto Triacca

    (Department of Information Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics University of L’Aquila, 67100 Coppito, Italy)

Abstract

The contribution of this paper is to investigate a particular form of lack of invariance of causality statements to changes in the conditioning information sets. Consider a discrete-time three-dimensional stochastic process z = ( x , y 1 , y 2 ) ′ . We want to study causality relationships between the variables in y = ( y 1 , y 2 ) ′ and x . Suppose that in a bivariate framework, we find that y 1 Granger causes x and y 2 Granger causes x , but these relationships vanish when the analysis is conducted in a trivariate framework. Thus, the causal links, established in a bivariate setting, seem to be spurious. Is this conclusion always correct? In this note, we show that the causal links, in the bivariate framework, might well not be ‘genuinely’ spurious: they could be reflecting causality from the vector y to x . Paradoxically, in this case, it is the non-causality in trivariate system that is misleading.

Suggested Citation

  • Umberto Triacca, 2017. "Non-Causality Due to Included Variables," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-4, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:46-:d:115044
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/5/4/46/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/5/4/46/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
    2. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Michael O’Neill & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2018. "Does Systematic Sampling Preserve Granger Causality with an Application to High Frequency Financial Data?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-24, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    2. Rahman, Md Saifur & Junsheng, Ha & Shahari, Farihana & Aslam, Mohamed & Masud, Muhammad Mehedi & Banna, Hasanul & Liya, Ma, 2015. "Long-run relationship between sectoral productivity and energy consumption in Malaysia: An aggregated and disaggregated viewpoint," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 436-445.
    3. Abdur Chowdhury, 1988. "Expenditures and receipts in state and local government finances: Comment," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 277-285, December.
    4. Schreiber, Sven, 2013. "(When) does money growth help to predict Euro-area inflation at low frequencies?," Discussion Papers 2013/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    5. James E. Payne, 2003. "A Survey of the International Empirical Evidence on the Tax-Spend Debate," Public Finance Review, , vol. 31(3), pages 302-324, May.
    6. Anam Azam & Muhammad Rafiq & Muhammad Shafique & Muhammad Ateeq & Jiahai Yuan, 2020. "Causality Relationship Between Electricity Supply and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Causality between public debt, public debt service and economic growth: Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 25745, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    8. Erdal Atukeren, 2008. "Christmas cards, Easter bunnies, and Granger-causality," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 835-844, December.
    9. Man-Keun Kim & Kangil Lee, 2015. "Dynamic Interactions between Carbon and Energy Prices in the U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 494-501.
    10. Sarker, Rakhal, "undated". "Testing Causality in Economics: A Review," Department of Agricultural Economics and Business 258629, University of Guelph.
    11. Triacca, Umberto, 1998. "Non-causality: The role of the omitted variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 317-320, September.
    12. Salih Gurcan Gulen, 1996. "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 318., Boston College Department of Economics.
    13. Jen-Chi Cheng & Larry W. Taylor & Wenlong Weng, 2007. "Exchange rates and prices: revisiting Granger causality tests," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 29(2), pages 259-283, January.
    14. Hudea Caraman, Oana Simona & Stancu, Stelian, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investments, Technology Transfer and Economic Growth. A Panel Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 85-102, June.
    15. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: The role of foreign direct investment, capital formation and trade openness in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 835-845.
    16. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2014. "The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 623-633.
    17. Shyh-Wei Chen & Zixiong Xie & Ying Liao, 2018. "Energy consumption promotes economic growth or economic growth causes energy use in China? A panel data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1019-1043, November.
    18. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    19. Christian Bordes, 1991. "Variations de la vitesse et volatilité de la croissance monétaire : le cas français," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 42(4), pages 733-744.
    20. Thomas Gries & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2011. "Causal Linkages Between Domestic Terrorism and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 493-508, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:46-:d:115044. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.