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Estimating Shareholder Risk Premia Using Analysts' Growth Forecasts

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  • Robert S.Harris
  • Felicia C. Marston

Abstract

This paper presents estimates of shareholder required rates of return and risk premia which are derived using forward-looking analysts' growth forecasts. We update through 1991 earlier work which, due to data availability, was restricted to the period 1982-1984. Using stronger tests, we also reexamine the efficacy of using such an expectational approach as an alternative to the use of historical averages. Using the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market portfolio, we find an average market risk premium ( 1982-1991) of 6.47% above yields on long-term U.S. government bonds and 5.13% above yields on corporate bonds. We also find that required returns for individual stocks vary directly with their risk (as proxied by beta) and that the market risk premium varies over time. These findings show that, in addition to fitting the theoretical requirement of being forward-looking, use of analysts' forecasts in estimating return requirements provides reasonable empirical results that can he useful in practical applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert S.Harris & Felicia C. Marston, 1992. "Estimating Shareholder Risk Premia Using Analysts' Growth Forecasts," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 21(2), Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:fma:fmanag:harris92
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    Cited by:

    1. Feng, Shih-Ping & Hung, Mao-Wei & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2014. "Option pricing with stochastic liquidity risk: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 77-95.
    2. Mishra, Dev R., 2014. "The dark side of CEO ability: CEO general managerial skills and cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 390-409.
    3. Schröder, David, 2005. "The Implied Equity Risk Premium: An Evaluation of Empirical Methods," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 13/2005, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    4. Masoud Azizkhani & Gary S. Monroe & Greg Shailer, 2010. "The value of Big 4 audits in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(4), pages 743-766, December.
    5. Igor Stubelj, 2010. "Valuation of Slovene Publicly Traded Companies with a Valuation Model Based on Expected Earnings and Growth Opportunities," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 8(1), pages 023-047.
    6. Norio Kitagawa & Hyonok Kim & Masatoshi Goto, 2011. "The effect of non-financial risk information on the evaluation of implied cost of capitals," Discussion Papers 2011-07, Kobe University, Graduate School of Business Administration, revised Feb 2011.
    7. Hasan, Mostafa Monzur & Hossain, Mahmud & Cheung, Adrian (Wai-Kong) & Habib, Ahsan, 2015. "Corporate life cycle and cost of equity capital," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 46-60.
    8. Patel, Ajay & Shoesmith, Gary L., 2004. "Term structure linkages surrounding the Plaza and Louvre accords: Evidence from Euro-rates and long-memory components," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2051-2075, September.
    9. Echterling, F. & Eierle, B. & Ketterer, S., 2015. "A review of the literature on methods of computing the implied cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 235-252.
    10. Mishra, Dev R. & O’Brien, Thomas J., 2019. "Fama-French, CAPM, and implied cost of equity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 73-85.
    11. Martin Lally, 2006. "Regulatory Revenues and the Choice of the CAPM: Australia Versus New Zealand," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 31(2), pages 313-331, December.
    12. Steven A. Sharpe, 2002. "How does the market interpret analysts' long-term growth forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. George Athanassakos, 1997. "Estimating the Cost of Equity and Equity Risk-Premia of Canadian Firms," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(3), pages 229-254, September.

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