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The effect of tax changes on consumer spending

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  • Charles Steindel

Abstract

Many supporters of the tax cut enacted this summer viewed it as an important stimulus to consumer spending. But an analysis of the effects of earlier income tax cuts suggests that the consumer response to such initiatives is, in fact, quite variable. Two conclusions stand out: First, consumers will be more likely to boost spending if the change in tax liabilities is permanent. Second, consumers will wait to increase spending until a tax change affects their take-home pay.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Steindel, 2001. "The effect of tax changes on consumer spending," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 7(Dec).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2001:i:dec:n:v.7no.11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "Social Security Benefits, Consumption Expenditure, and the Life Cycle Hypothesis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 288-304, April.
    2. Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "The Reaction of Household Consumption to Predictable Changes in Social Security Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 959-973, September.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    4. Richard Peach & Charles Steindel, 2000. "A nation of spendthrifts? An analysis of trends in personal and gross saving," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Sep).
    5. Blinder, Alan S, 1981. "Temporary Income Taxes and Consumer Spending," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(1), pages 26-53, February.
    6. Eisner, Robert, 1971. "What Went Wrong?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 629-641, May-June.
    7. Nicholas S. Souleles, 1999. "The Response of Household Consumption to Income Tax Refunds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 947-958, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ifrim Mihaela, 2015. "Post-Crisis Fiscal Dilemmas In Romania," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 185-189, August.
    2. James Alm & Asmaa El-Ganainy, 2013. "Value-added taxation and consumption," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(1), pages 105-128, February.
    3. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Staff Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.

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    Keywords

    Income tax ; Taxation ; Consumption (Economics);

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