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Recent U.S. intervention: is less more?

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  • Owen F. Humpage

Abstract

An analysis of the forecast value of U.S. interventions in the foreign exchange market over the past seven years, which finds that official transactions by U.S. monetary authorities generally did not seem to improve the efficiency with which the foreign exchange market obtained information during this period.

Suggested Citation

  • Owen F. Humpage, 1997. "Recent U.S. intervention: is less more?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q III, pages 2-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1997:i:qiii:p:2-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    2. Owen F. Humpage, 1988. "Intervention and the dollar's decline," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 24(Q II), pages 2-16.
    3. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16, October.
    4. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
    5. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December.
    6. Geert J. Almekinders, 1995. "Foreign Exchange Intervention," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 71.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    2. Richard T. Baillie & William P. Osterberg, 1998. "Central bank intervention and overnight uncovered interest rate parity," Working Papers (Old Series) 9823, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    3. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 2000. "Deviations from daily uncovered interest rate parity and the role of intervention," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 363-379, December.

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