IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eur/ejesjr/158.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Macro-Economic and Technical Indicators Matter?- a Principal Component Analysis Approach for Equity Risk Premium Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Naveed Ul Hassan
  • Bilal Aziz
  • Maryam Mushtaq

Abstract

Equity risk premium contains the property of reflecting the fundamental judgments of individuals regarding risk that might exists in the economic market and the price associated with that risk. For ERP forecasting, attention is also devoted to technical indicators apart from the macro-economic variables. A set of 14 technical and 14 macro-economic variables is selected for this purpose and based on a standard predictive regression framework; all forecasts are generated by regressing ERP on a constant and a lag of macro-economic or technical indicator. It is found that as compared to macro-economic variables technical indicators provide better indications about ERP estimates. By using National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) data of business cycle expansion and recessions, relative strength of ERP predictability is also investigated and it is found more than twice for recessions as compare to expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Naveed Ul Hassan & Bilal Aziz & Maryam Mushtaq, 2017. "Do Macro-Economic and Technical Indicators Matter?- a Principal Component Analysis Approach for Equity Risk Premium Prediction," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, ejes_v3_i.
    • Handle: RePEc:eur:ejesjr:158
    DOI: 10.26417/ejes.v9i1.p46-62
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://brucol.be/index.php/ejes/article/view/5379
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://brucol.be/files/articles/ejes_v3_i3_17/Naveed.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.26417/ejes.v9i1.p46-62?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luiz R. de Mello Jr., 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Selective Survey," Studies in Economics 9701, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    2. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    3. Magnus Blomstrom, 1991. "Host Country Benefits of Foreign Investment," NBER Working Papers 3615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Manuel Agosin & Roberto Machado, 2005. "Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 149-162.
    5. John Cantwell & Rajneesh Narula, 2001. "The Eclectic Paradigm in the Global Economy," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 155-172.
    6. Abdul Khaliq & Ilan Noy, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Sectoral Data in Indonesia," Working Papers 200726, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    7. Luiz de Mello, 1997. "Foreign direct investment in developing countries and growth: A selective survey," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-34.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    2. David Mayer‐Foulkes & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2009. "Do Multinational Enterprises Contribute to Convergence or Divergence? A Disaggregated Analysis of US FDI," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 304-318, May.
    3. Gulcin Elif Yucel, 2014. "FDI and Economic Growth: The Case of Baltic Countries," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 115-134, September.
    4. SAGLAM, B. Bayraktar & Yalta, A.Y, 2011. "Dynamic Linkages Among Foreign Direct Investment, Public Investment And Private Investment: Evidence From Turkey," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 11(2).
    5. Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2009. "FDI and growth: A new look at a still puzzling issue," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2009-13, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    6. Neil Dias Karunaratne, 2012. "Total Factor Productivity & Foreign direct investment in OECD countries - A Paneldata Econometric Analysis," Discussion Papers Series 465, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    7. Latif Khalilov & Chae-Deug Yi, 2020. "Is Foreign Direct Investment a Real Driving Force of Economic Growth? A Panel Data Analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 12(3), pages 273-299, September.
    8. Akintoye V. Adejumo & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment and Green Growth in Nigeria: Any Spillovers?," Research Africa Network Working Papers 19/078, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    9. Samuel Adams & Edem Kwame Mensah Klobodu & Richmond Odartey Lamptey, 2017. "The Effects of Capital Flows on Economic Growth in Senegal," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(2), pages 121-142, May.
    10. Angelo Antoci & Paolo Russu & Elisa Ticci, 2014. "Rural Poor Economies and Foreign Investors: An Opportunity or a Risk?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, December.
    11. Mondher Cherif & Christian Dreger, 2015. "The Impact of South-South Trade Agreements on FDI," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1461, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Peter Nunnenkamp, 2004. "To What Extent Can Foreign Direct Investment Help Achieve International Development Goals?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 657-677, May.
    13. Neil Dias Karunaratne, 2013. "Perspectives on Total Factor Productivity and Foreign Direct Investment in OECD Countries based on Panel Data Econometrics," Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, ScientificPapers.org, vol. 3(2), pages 1-8, April.
    14. Santos, Eleonora, 2017. "Externalities from FDI on domestic firms’ Productivity: A Literature Review for Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 88958, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Akisik, Orhan & Gal, Graham & Mangaliso, Mzamo P., 2020. "IFRS, FDI, economic growth and human development: The experience of Anglophone and Francophone African countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    16. B. Seetanah, 2009. "Is Foreign Direct Investment Growth Conducive? New Evidences From Sub-Saharan African Countries, 1980-2005," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    17. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2004. "Wachstumseffekte von Direktinvestitionen in Entwicklungsländern: warum hohe Erwartungen häufig enttäuscht werden," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3217, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Alaya MAROUANE & Dalila NICET-CHENAF & Eric ROUGIER, 2008. "The law of growth and attraction: an endogenous model of absorptive capacities, FDI and income for MENA countries," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2008-27, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    19. Vu, Tam Bang & Noy, Ilan, 2009. "Sectoral analysis of foreign direct investment and growth in the developed countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 402-413, April.
    20. Mohamed Abdouli and Sami Hammami, 2017. "Exploring Links between FDI Inflows, Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Further Evidence from MENA Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 95-117, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eur:ejesjr:158. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Revistia Research and Publishing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://revistia.com/index.php/ejes .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.