IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/esr/qecsas/2011autumnfitzgerald.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Irish Government Debt and Implied Debt Dynamics: 2011-2015

Author

Listed:
  • Fitz Gerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide

Abstract

This article examines the debt dynamics facing the Irish State over the period 2011 to 2015. The analysis takes account of the reduction in interest rates on EU borrowing agreed at the EU Council meeting in July 2011 and it makes very conservative assumptions on the interest rate available after 2013. The base case estimates suggest that the net debt to GDP ratio will peak at between 100 and 105 per cent of GDP in 2013 and that it could fall back to 98 per cent by 2015. The related gross debt to GDP ratio would peak in 2012 at between 110 and 115 per cent of GDP before falling back to between 105 and 110 per cent of GDP by 2015. This is much lower than had been assumed in official figures earlier this year, partly because the cost of bank recapitalisation was lower than anticipated and also because of the reduction in EU interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Fitz Gerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2011. "Irish Government Debt and Implied Debt Dynamics: 2011-2015," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), issue 3-Autumn.
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:qecsas:2011:autumn:fitzgerald
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.esri.ie/pubs/QEC2011Aut_SA_FitzGerald.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adele Bergin & John Fitz Gerald & Ide Kearney & Cormac O'Sullivan, 2011. "The Irish Fiscal Crisis," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217(1), pages 47-59, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kearney, Ide, 2012. "Measuring Fiscal Stance," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2012(3-Autumn).
    2. Callan, Tim & Savage, Michael, 2013. "Tax and Taxable Capacity: Ireland in Comparative Perspective," Research Notes RN2012/4/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Marek Dabrowski, 2012. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Determinants of the Eurozone Crisis and its Resolution," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 443, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Ulrich Volz, 2013. "Lessons of the European crisis for regional monetary and financial integration in East Asia," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 355-376, December.
    5. Bas van Aarle & Joris Tielens & Jan Van Hove, 2015. "The financial crisis and its aftermath: the case of Ireland," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 393-410, September.
    6. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & Casey, Eddie, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QECQEC2012AUT, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cost;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:esr:qecsas:2011:autumn:fitzgerald. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sarah Burns). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/esriiie.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.