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Irish Government Debt and Implied Debt Dynamics: 2011-2015

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  • Fitz Gerald, John
  • Kearney, Ide

Abstract

This article examines the debt dynamics facing the Irish State over the period 2011 to 2015. The analysis takes account of the reduction in interest rates on EU borrowing agreed at the EU Council meeting in July 2011 and it makes very conservative assumptions on the interest rate available after 2013. The base case estimates suggest that the net debt to GDP ratio will peak at between 100 and 105 per cent of GDP in 2013 and that it could fall back to 98 per cent by 2015. The related gross debt to GDP ratio would peak in 2012 at between 110 and 115 per cent of GDP before falling back to between 105 and 110 per cent of GDP by 2015. This is much lower than had been assumed in official figures earlier this year, partly because the cost of bank recapitalisation was lower than anticipated and also because of the reduction in EU interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Fitz Gerald, John & Kearney, Ide, 2011. "Irish Government Debt and Implied Debt Dynamics: 2011-2015," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), issue 3-Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:qecsas:2011:autumn:fitzgerald
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    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/QEC2011Aut_SA_FitzGerald.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bergin, Adele & Gerald, John Fitz & Kearney, Ide & O'Sullivan, Cormac, 2011. "The Irish Fiscal Crisis," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 217, pages 47-59, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kearney, Ide, 2012. "Measuring Fiscal Stance," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2012(3-Autumn).
    2. Callan, Tim & Savage, Michael, 2013. "Tax and Taxable Capacity: Ireland in Comparative Perspective," Research Notes RN2012/4/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Marek Dabrowski, 2012. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Determinants of the Eurozone Crisis and its Resolution," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 443, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Ulrich Volz, 2013. "Lessons of the European crisis for regional monetary and financial integration in East Asia," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 355-376, December.
    5. Bas van Aarle & Joris Tielens & Jan Van Hove, 2015. "The financial crisis and its aftermath: the case of Ireland," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 393-410, September.
    6. Dennis Pepple & Kehinde Olowookere, 2021. "Towards an Understanding of the Dynamics of Work and Employment Relations during Austerity," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 281-297, June.
    7. Duffy, David & Durkan, Joe & Casey, Eddie, 2012. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2012," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QECQEC2012AUT, June.

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