IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/emx/esteco/v28y2013i1p39-77.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Matriz de probabilidad de transición de microcréditos: el caso de una microfinanciera mexicana

Author

Listed:
  • Verónica P. Rodríguez Vázquez

    (Universidad de las Américas Puebla)

  • Japhet Hernández Vaquero

    (Management Solutions)

Abstract

Microfinance in Mexico has developed at an accelerated pace and the efforts in credit risk management in this sector are scarce. The goal of this work is the construction of a Transition Probability Matrix in the rating of microcredits which can be used in the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR), observing the regulations of the “Unique Circular of Saving and Popular Credit†emitted by “Commission of National Banking and Securities", CNBV. Both, the methodology for its construction based in Markov chains theory and the obtained results, are presented. The hypotheses of absorbing state and the high recovery of microcredits are confirmed. Finally it is detected that men are as good payers as women.

Suggested Citation

  • Verónica P. Rodríguez Vázquez & Japhet Hernández Vaquero, 2013. "Matriz de probabilidad de transición de microcréditos: el caso de una microfinanciera mexicana," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 28(1), pages 39-77.
    • Handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:28:y:2013:i:1:p:39-77
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://estudioseconomicos.colmex.mx/index.php/economicos/article/view/85/87
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. repec:idb:brikps:34798 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Hanson, Samuel & Schuermann, Til, 2006. "Confidence intervals for probabilities of default," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2281-2301, August.
    6. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas Jobst, 2002. "Loan Securitisation: Default Term Structure and Asset Pricing Based on Loss Prioritisation," FMG Discussion Papers dp422, Financial Markets Group.
    2. Jobst, Andreas A., 2002. "The Pricing puzzle: The default term structure of collateralised loan obligations," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    4. Giampaolo Gabbi & Andrea Sironi, 2005. "Which factors affect corporate bonds pricing? Empirical evidence from eurobonds primary market spreads," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 59-74.
    5. Hong-Ming Yin & Jin Liang & Yuan Wu, 2018. "On a New Corporate Bond Pricing Model with Potential Credit Rating Change and Stochastic Interest Rate," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Chava, Sudheer & Jarrow, Robert, 2008. "Modeling loan commitments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 11-20, March.
    7. Augusto Castillo, 2004. "Firm and Corporate Bond Valuation: A Simulation Dynamic Programming Approach," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 41(124), pages 345-360.
    8. Nan Chen & S. G. Kou, 2009. "Credit Spreads, Optimal Capital Structure, And Implied Volatility With Endogenous Default And Jump Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 343-378, July.
    9. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    10. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Lambe, Brendan John, 2015. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive CDS spreads?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 447-458.
    11. Chen, An-Sing & Chu, Hsiang-Hui & Hung, Pi-Hsia & Cheng, Miao-Sih, 2020. "Financial risk and acquirers' stockholder wealth in mergers and acquisitions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2002. "Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-107/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2009. "The Empirical Relation between Credit Quality, Recovery and Correlation," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-418, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    14. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    15. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    16. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
    17. Jobst, Norbert J. & Zenios, Stavros A., 2005. "On the simulation of portfolios of interest rate and credit risk sensitive securities," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 298-324, March.
    18. Tsung-Kang Chen & Hsien-Hsing Liao & Chia-Wu Lu, 2011. "A flow-based corporate credit model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 517-532, May.
    19. Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
    20. Dragon Tang & Hong Yan, 2006. "Macroeconomic Conditions, Firm Characteristics, and Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 29(3), pages 177-210, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    microfinance; credit risk; transition probability matrix; Markov chains; Value at Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:emx:esteco:v:28:y:2013:i:1:p:39-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ximena Varela (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cecolmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.